US Politics

It depends state by state how and when absentee/postal votes get counted; in PA there's 5.2m votes counted and 1m not even started postal votes to be counted and yes, Democratic votes should dominate as Republicans encouraged on the day voting to engineer this situation.

After Kenosha trump about 93k down in Wisconsin. The missing absentee ballots are from the major urban areas and expected to be heavily blue ~ 170k ballots to be counted I believe. Hence no projection.

I don't really understand the late counting of postal votes that we've been hearing about - does that mean that those last 6% are all postal votes left to be counted till the end (and possibly / possibly not more likely to favour Biden)?

Yes. In some states they pre-count the postal ballots (eg Ohio), so Biden led early there, but Trump overtook him from the later counts of in-person voting. In others (eg Pennsylvania), it works the other way round - they count in-person first (Trump lead) and then start on the postal votes which are likely to favour Biden. As the majority of postal votes are from people affiliated to a party, they have a good idea of the weighting towards each candidate.

This is Trump's isn't it?

More than likely, yes.

Georgia and North Carolina are the closest two left and therefore they'll determine the winner.

That Grauniad link currently has it Biden 238 - 213 Trump with Biden taking Maine and Arizona.

If Biden does take Nevada and Wisconsin that's only another 16 electoral college votes giving him 254 (he needs 270).

That means he'd need Georgia (16) which is slipping away, 2% behind with 94% counted.
NC is only 15. Biden is 1.4% behind with 94% counted.
In PA (20) there's very little chance. 12% behind but only 64% counted.
MI is 16 but he's 5% behind with 81% counted.