Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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i am dreading their new 3 word slogan for the new lockdown, i bet there is a save xmas in there somewhere

Hibernate, save xmas!

“Fuck Boris, Save The NHS”

Pretty much no one caring about following "the rules" because no one else is.

It’s simply guideline, not law.

We still can go to Tiers 3, we might get a punishment of a scowl, maybe a word or two but that’s it.

Basically a Dominic Cumming.

Thank you for an interesting few minutes on Wikipedia reading about the Charge of the Light Brigade.

This part sums it up neatly: "...and the assault ended with very high British casualties and no decisive gains."

Yep. Nice one Boris.

Ahem.

Maybe not enforced very well, but very definitely law not guidelines.

The Charge of the Light Brigade was the result, if I remember correctly, of poor communication, petty rivalries and crass stupidity. The parallels are definitely there.

So suggestion that they will announce it tonight now, as the leak took them by surprise...
Proper shambles as per

The Charge of the Light Brigade was the result, if I remember correctly, of poor communication, petty rivalries and crass stupidity. The parallels are definitely there.

Hm, I can't really see them at all. Could you perhaps elaborate?

As if it wasn't already clear (and we saw all this before in London), Johnson's a notoriously poor decision-maker. He hesitates when he should act and acts when he should wait, and either way generally makes the wrong decision. I can't wait for him to be permanently out of politics. There must be something he's actually good at, but he certainly hasn't come within a sniff of it yet.

He's an expert in affairs of the extramarital kind.

He is quite good on HIGNFY compared to other politicians.

Bless you.

Well, that was the reason why he became a celebrity. Unfortunately, people trust people they've seen on TV. It was similar with Trump.

So I know we're talking about a second wave incoming (like it's a surprise) but surely if we don't do something different they'll just be third and forth waves too?

What does the government think will happen?

I’m starting to think it is pure public school boy bravado incompetence now and they really don’t understand how it works. The cabinet is absolutely devoid of talent, we have absolutely fucked it again.

You're only starting to think this now...?!

All in on vaccine by Christmas, don't think they have a plan B

The second wave is already here.

120k predicted deaths at 0.25% CFR would mean 48 million people getting it. Combined with the first wave that's pretty much everyone in the country who would have been exposed (except for those who are shielding superbly well).

Doesn't leave much scope for a 3rd or 4th wave unless there's some mutation (no evidence yet to suggest this will or won't happen) or if the acquired immunity isn't enough to ward off a bad subsequent case. (Some people will get various viruses multiple times, but that doesn't mean a significant proportion of the population will.)

Many more people <80yo will die in this wave though as the demand for hospital beds will greatly outstrip supply and so there will be some avoidable deaths. Even if many of those survive there will be a lot more 'long Covid' sufferers after this wave.

The second wave is already here.

Some argue that it’s still the first wave as it continues since the beginning of the year.

unless there's some mutation (no evidence yet to suggest this will or won't happen)

there is some evidence of a new mutation from Spain.

A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries — and more than 80 per cent in the UK.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/scientists-warn-of-new-coronavirus-variant-spreading-across-europe/46127554

120k predicted deaths at 0.25% CFR would mean 48 million people getting it

Where are you getting your numbers from?

I'd say it's impractical for the virus to spread to 48 million people in a short period time. The virus isn't that contagious and many/most people are doing a half-decent job staying away from others, so its growth rate will slow down long before it reaches a majority of the population.

OK, maybe I should have said "significant mutation". Mutations in viruses happen all the time, and there are a whole boat load of different variations of SARS-Cov-2 going round at the moment.

The danger is that it mutates in such a way that the existing immunity becomes less useful (or even useless).

Most of the time a significant mutation makes it less dangerous overall as it does something like lessen the time between infection and onset of symptoms (which makes it less likely to be spread) or reduces the percentage of asymptomatic cases (which, again, makes it less likely to be spread).

It sounds strange and I can’t really explain it but I at least thought there was some kind of plan, even a very loose one. I just don’t think my brain can comprehend the level of incompetence and the fact they are running the country.

Where are you getting your numbers from?

CFR from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

The 120k deaths of the winter figure has been put out there by the scientists (requested by Vallance) at various points: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148

The various projections (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54756950) vary massively though (which shows how hard this shit is to deal with). But many of those show 60 consecutive days above 2,000 deaths/day, that gives you 120k deaths right there.

Exactly my thoughts.