• One thing that blows my mind is how the government and media are very happy reporting on the current R number of the virus, but I have never heard them explain, clearly and forcefully, that it is our behaviour that changes its value.

    The tone of the reporting seems to be "R is below 1, so fill your boots with crowding together and getting pished" rather than "if you crowd together and get pished, R will almost definitely go up and lots of people will die."

  • Also there's a significant hysteresis in the system. Behaviour now will affect the R number somewhere between a week and two weeks' time.

    I wonder if the pubs will be shut again in a couple of weeks and we're, in effect, going to get something close to the Imperial original "x weeks freedom, 2x weeks lockdown, x weeks freedom, 2x weeks lockdown, lather, rinse and repeat..."

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