Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

These were never featured on Beyond 2000!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-23/new-york-finds-virus-marker-in-13-9-suggesting-wide-spread

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52395866

It will be interesting to see the results of UK antibody tests (whenever the pilot is completed). I suspect they'll be similar to NYC (1/5th having had it).

As more reports like these come out, fatigue is going to be compounded. The government needs to sort out mid-to-long term scenarios Asap.

https://www.reddit.com/r/behindthebastards/comments/g7pqd5/telling_covid_deniers_f_ck_you_is_almost_as/

This is scary: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

From my dad;

“Part of the illness with Covid involves clots forming as the immune response gets out of control. Some of the deaths in the most affected people are from the blood clots.”

Excellent name (or humour) that this young doctor has:

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Stricter lockdown in Welshland:-

https://gov.wales/leaving-home-exercise-guidance

• 19. Cycling should be local, as a rule of thumb limited to travelling no further than a reasonable walking distance from home. Exercising by cycling significant distances from home is not considered to be a reasonable excuse for leaving home.
  
  

Wonder if England will follow suit. The devolved nations are starting to stride out for themselves in the vacuum of leadership from England.

I think measures were taken too late, but don't see any evidence that the 'lockdown' needs to now be tightened further. I thought the consensus was that is has brought R0 below 1.

Yeah because I'm sure people cycling too far in Wales is an actual problem... just good old cyclist-bashing.

Just wishy washy enough to be meaningless.

My partner went to Tesco this morning.

He said many people with masks think they are invincible and come much closer.

If that's the effect a big information campaign will be needed :/

I think it'll be tightened further because people are starting to ignore the current restrictions and, without any change, this will only increase and R0 will start to creep back above 1.

Reiterating the same/current message isn't going to make people start to stick to it properly and there aren't many other options open other than to increase the restrictions temporarily in order to get back to where we should be now.

My other guess is that schools will start to go back (in some form, maybe just primary first) sometime around 1st June. But that's highly dependent on there being enough teaching staff available. I know some teachers at my daughter's school can't go back as they need to remain isolated (either directly or indirectly due to caring responsibilities), so it may be partial (no reception for example).

Many children of key workers are already mixing with other children of key workers. My daughter's school has somewhere between 5 and 15 children (out of 210) in school depending on the parent's shifts.

Does anyone have any updates on mutations? It was discussed quite a bit a couple of weeks ago, but not seen any news reports about it since.
If the virus mutates as readily as it was suggested earlier, then we should be seeing quite a few strains by now.

seems that it mutates relatively slowly and that the mutations are very similar to the original virus

https://www.ft.com/content/d34097f0-e2c3-41a7-b3c7-9c1eb0f9df92

I'm part of a group of people whose blood is used to evaluate a couple of antibody tests, having tested positive via nasal swab 6 weeks ago and getting comparatively mild symptoms. Results are quite interesting and confusing so far. I've developed antibodies but my mate hasn't, for example. My antibodies took 3 weeks from when symptoms started to be detectable, others have had lots & lots after only 7 days.

The missus has just had a series of NHS texts saying she's high risk and needs to cocoon. Separate room, separate bathroom, 3 steps away from anyone in the house.
Bit fucking late now mate. We've had 5 of us in here for 5 weeks now.

Don't know why she has been added to the list now and no other comms have been received. Possibly because she has a series of immune issues but no headline ones and they are only getting to those people now, but a bit weird. Has shitted her up a bit.
Will phone the gp on Monday and see if they know anything more. Mind you, also pretty sure she has had it anyway so life will go on as normal (lockdown normal at least).

people are starting to ignore the current restrictions

What is the evidence for this? If it is true, isn't that an enforcement issue rather than an issue with the restrictions?

From the data points I have seen, there would be no reason for tightened restrictions.

If a reasonable worst case scenario is that having recovered from the virus doesn't confer immunity and it isn't possible to develop a vaccine, what are the consequences for modern civilization? Pretty profound I would guess.

Unfortunately I am still obliged to go to work, to work, and what I've seen over the last two weeks is the traffic and number of people on the street increase markedly, especially with the pleasant weather.

In the last couple of days I've seen at least 3 groups of men meeting up in parking lots, drinking or smoking or whatever, with pretty token efforts at social distancing.

And no, I don't hang around parking lots.

Won't the people who ignore the current rules, just ignore the tighter rules anyway? I really hate that whole 'minority ruin it for the rest' way of thought. It's just lazy to punish everyone and a total cop-out of just managing the minority causing the issue.

I wonder if schools will have a part time timetable for a bit. A typical 7 year primary might have 2 years in at a time which allows for staff absences and a bit more space.

Yeah but isn't it easier just blaming some cyclist who went for a 100mi tour...

Google stats show phone mobility so if you must go awol for hours don't take your phone . I have seen far more traffic (plenty of traffic cams) on the mersey tunnel approach last week and nobs ragging it down the road going effin knowhere.

people are starting to ignore the current restrictions

What is the evidence for this?

Anecdotally, I've just ridden through Blackheath, having delivered some food to my in-laws.

The Crown, at the top of the village has a beer garden out front, which was chock-full of people sitting on the benches shoulder to shoulder drinking and chatting. It looked like it does on a normal summers day. That would never have happened a week or so ago.

Went to brockwell park greenhouses so help out as they needed some stuff done and were short of their normal core staff, it was busy but no one sitting around. Just people walking through which I was pretty pleased about.