Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

With hindsight I don't think you can unequivocally say that Brown did the right thing. Bailing out the banks through QE was a terrible terrible decision IMO.

Controversial

I think swift action to prevent the collapse of the entire banking system was absolutely the right thing to do, and I don’t think there are any serious economists who’d disagree. The subsequent policy details are more controversial.

Furloughing: Word from the bigwig finance peeps is that furloughing rates will reduce over time 80% > 60% > 40% > 20% as the country and economy works itself out of this hole.

Interesting strategy.

if the government are seen to have handled things badly.

Zero chance of this though right? Cummings will make sure of it.
Plus NO opposition.

Looks like it’s the American virus now...

I totally disagree. It could have been a moment to change the status quo. Instead we reverted to mean, as did the bankers. Bonuses the year after etc...

The 2008 financial crisis injected so much cheap capital into the world through QE that we've just lived through the bullish 12 years of growth ever. Whilst people got poorer, inequality widened, etc, etc..

It’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better and the delay in preparing properly will be seen as a major mistake by most people. That could be fatal for this administration, especially if they keep pushing for the current end of the transition period and we have to cope with leaving EU institutions at the same time.

Rupert Read here with a strong anti-Johnson government take.

https://medium.com/@GreenRupertRead/the-coronavirus-letter-youve-just-been-sent-by-johnson-is-a-lie-transcript-824e71aa73b

I think swift action to prevent the collapse of the entire banking system was absolutely the right thing to do, and I don’t think there are any serious economists who’d disagree. The subsequent policy details are more controversial.

Public sentiment is going to be interesting in January if the supermarkets empty again, but this time due to genuine, non-trivial and non-resolvable issues with importing food.

Edited.

It could have been a moment to change the status quo

Allowing the entire banking system to collapse certainly would have changed the status quo. Or at least put it back it time to somewhere around the late Middle Ages.

we've just lived through the bullish 12 years of growth ever.

I'd be curious to know what metric you're using to assess that, other than gut reaction, anecdote and 'common sense'.

Also be interesting how people react when we start a mass airlift of 'non-skilled' workers who don't meet the criteria of an Australian style points based system to stop food from rotting, unpicked in the fields

https://www.farminguk.com/news/government-urged-to-charter-planes-to-bring-farm-workers-to-uk_55326.html

It's not a binary decision. Bailing out the banks or allowing the entire banking system to collapse. It's perfectly feasible to imagine a situation where financial institutions were semi-nationalised, hugely regulated and repurposed for the good of the 'economy' rather than their own interests.

Growth can be measured at a macro level by global GDP
https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/

We have the same issues in Sweden. Farmers screaming for workers whilst people being laid off left, right and center. Strangely enough, even though people are out of work there's no interest in some minimum wage strawberry picking...

It's not a terribly convincing letter though is it? The only steps it lists that were missed were:

They should have moved already to stop flights coming in from Italy and China. They should have quarantined those possibly having the virus. They should have ordered in ventilators and personal protective equipment for carers. They should have begun a mass program of testing. They should have provided enough to live on to all those tempted to work sick

And those steps were probably not taken in time by nearly every country in the world, with apparently the exception of South Korea.

And this vague snippet for personal culpability of Johnson:

A well-placed source has indicated to colleagues of mine that the Chief Medical Officer was ready some time ago to put in place tougher measures for physical distancing and so on and that these were vetoed at the last minute by the Prime Minister

The rest is a rant.

I suspect that the sentiments of the letter are likely true. However, there will need a proper refutation of govt actions by qualified people, with timelines to show Johnson up.

Anecdotally, my mother (who intensely disliked the Torys a few months ago because of Brexit - not enough to vote for Corbyn of course) now thinks that Johnson has 'really grown into the role' and is doing a great job. It makes me cringe, but I can see that he's very likely going to come out of it really well.

To @senior_bear 's point, the government could have made bail out funds contingent on terms far more equitable to the 99%.

The risk then is that the UK banking system is hobbled in competing with the rest of the world.

Why can't UK based people do this?
I'd imagine that some of the people who have been furloughed now have sufficient time on their hands to help out...

I think is one of the most pernicious lies ever, that competitive advantages require poor form.

maybe this time set some stringent clauses in the bailouts
so the banks actually take a hit not just the people, they've been fucking us over for decades, and we've been bailing them out for decades

I think this is bang on. The combination of inaction and then blaming us is really pissing me off.

Being shamed for going to the park twice in a day or riding for more than 60 mins when two weeks ago this was "scientifically fine" is fucking nuts.

I wholeheartedly agree with this, chucking the people who caused that mess a load of free money, rather than locking them up and sorting it out properly was a massive fuck up and just means the same will happen again.

Whilst furloughed you can’t take up other work.

I'm not entirely sure that's true, your existing contract might forbid it, so you could lose your current job, but I think it's fine, voluntary stuff especially. I think the only thing I saw forbidden was making money for your current, furloughing employer, especially as some people might already work at a few jobs part time but only be furloughed from one.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/uk-discussed-joint-eu-plan-to-buy-covid-19-medical-supplies-say-officials

So they had a meeting about this with the EU end of January...