Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Marshmallows cure Covid? Got it

Why are we doing f’all in Sweden? Even less than the uk. The PM did a televised address and managed to not say anything, he still seemed better than Boris though

I do see this.

On my last supermarket run I choose a slower queue, but with only one person. The next person kept trying to budge me up even though there way miles of the person in fronts shopping.

I moved my trolley behind me to space us out. Another woman came to join her and then kept trying to get around my distancing trolley. No reason. Just because that's what people do.

In fairness I should have asked them to stay back and in any event the cashier probably represents the highest risk.

I'd say it's equal parts panic and stupidity... I'm panicking because humans are so fucking stupid...

What would Douglas Adams say?

You and Lori keep safe. I'll email you some stuff our tree-like friend wrote to me about all this shit the other day (and as you know, he's actually an expert in this shit) which may be reassuring. But the gist was: this will suck for lots of people, but don't panic.

My colleagues at work are saying the Tube is busy......
We haven't had any hand sanitiser for a couple of weeks.
I suggested they get in touch with Brewdog .
One of the reps said the railway was being re-nationalised ?

The way I view it: every individual needs to count the number of people that they come within 2m of within a day at fewer than 5.

What's the work behind this? Obviously the fewer opportunities for transmission the better, but this seems oddly specific. Having said that, for some people, quantifying it like this would probably be very helpful.

I've tried to quantify what social distancing means... not just distance from people, but number of people we encounter.

If I go to the office and there's 150 people there in an open plan, I may come within 2m of 50 during the work day, add another 10-20 during lunch queuing for food and being served, add another 100+ strangers I walk past on the tube or share the tube/bus with, add a couple for neighbours and housemate.

2m space is good... but we should also reduce the number of people we pass in a day, push all the numbers down... so what's a low enough number?

If I casually cross the paths of 250 people in a day, should I aim for 10% of that? 25 people in a day... this is quite lax still, it's still popping out to a cafe for lunch whilst mostly staying in or crossing the road to avoid people. Could it be more aggressive? What about 5%? That's 12 people... but if I were ill and did infect 12 people that's still crazy growth of the virus... what is a per-person goal instead? Something that could be a nice rule I could apply to myself?

And so I came up with 5.

5 people within 2m per day... which is not to go in any shop, cafe, etc. Not to go meet at anyone's house. Still allows for a walk around the streets for air, but forces me to cross the road and not occupy even the pavement with others.

That said, I haven't gone outside in almost a week... so my number is 1.

Not the Tube, but the train operating companies .... .

'cause sweden..

Over here they have put big lumps of acrylic between cashier and customer in most of the supermarkets. It is not perfect but it is something.

ON teh downside the fridges in sueprmarkets here generally have doors on them. Trying to guess which bit of the door people might not have touched is all the fun.

It feels natural to crave the army comes in but before we do that we should be shutting down nonessential (non life saving) works and businesses too. People having to continue going to work is carnage. UBI now.

I really like the idea of quantifying it to help focus the mind. No idea what the right number would be, but whatever helps. I also think the idea of every interaction being cut is one less opportunity for the virus to spread is a key thing for people to grasp. As I said previously, this is not binary situation. Everyone who is currently practicing government recommendations and beyond have taken themselves out (or greatly reduced their opportunity for being part) of the network of spread which should have a real world impact.

I will say:

That's 12 people... but if I were ill and did infect 12 people that's still crazy growth of the virus... what is a per-person goal instead?

I'm sure you know this, but it's worth keeping in mind that that's unlikely (infecting all 12 people).

I think it's fair to assume he genuinely doesn't want a lockdown

I don't believe this, or at least I don't think it's his primary driver. I suspect it's just political awareness. Once he starts locking people up and issuing dictats about people (in their minds) minding their own business, he'll be incredibly, personally exposed at having interfered with people. Maybe not immediately, but after weeks / months of the measures that he'd have imposed.

I know that. I'm just keeping the hypothetical nice and simple.

Aiming for fewer than 5 people within 2m in a 24 hour period... is a good rule of thumb I think.

All of the essential interactions are still possible, but it really helps me think about every non-essential proximity to another person.

We'll be fine, we're planning to stay away from everybody for the foreseeable future, if I can't WFH I'll just quit... We've got enough cash to see us through 'til this all blows over, I can't risk Lori getting sick...

I know that.

Yeah, which is what I figured (and said), but felt it was worth highlighting to remind ourselves, and everyone else, about the reality of transmission.

Embracing Defeat by John W. Dower

Yes!

The Government’s handling of risks and emergencies in recent years had failed to inspire public confidence. In a range of crises, from the Foot and Mouth outbreak through to the grounds for war in Iraq, official predictions or capabilities have been found wanting. The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 tenders reassurance by the promise of systemic planning and activity in civil resilience, though defence lies beyond its scope. The wide-ranging powers in the Act have the capability of delivering on the promise.

let's see what happens today

..

€25,000 fine for people in Germany (per person it appears) if they breach the 2M rule, or congregate in groups larger than 2.

Hope they do that here. Use the money to help the self employed

lol UK cant even enforce 20mph

If there is it isnt myself. Might be a good opening question though.

So two things on that: on the one hand, you are of course correct on the face of it. However, it is worth remembering that my risk of getting infected just from walking past someone who isn't coughing in my general direction is really small, even if they are indeed positive. I still think the main issue is surfaces that are used a lot. Handrails, seats, door knobs, etc. etc.: it doesn't matter if you keep 10m distance to the next person to go through a door if you touch the same surfaces within seconds or minutes of each other.

Also secondly, I think they should declare all roads that aren't main roads pedestrian zones for the moment (with people living there allowed to drive through at say 10mph max). Imagine how nicely spaced out everybody could get about if we actually used the huge amount of road area that is currently mostly unused (see here).

I still think the main issue is surfaces that are used a lot. Handrails, seats, door knobs, etc. etc.: it doesn't matter if you keep 10m distance to the next person to go through a door if you touch the same surfaces within seconds or minutes of each other.

This doesn't have to be a main issue - and shouldn't be. It's why hygiene is important. As individuals we can mitigate these risks ourselves.

True I'd forgotten about the horrors of the occupation.

I disagree, it's just not realistic to expect individual 'hygiene' to solve that problem. It is extremely difficult to avoid touching other things with your hands, even when you try to be conscious about it, and there are many many ways it could end up infecting you. The priority most definitely has to be on limiting the number of 'shared' surfaces you have to touch in the first place.

Contactless payment, btw, is super helpful with this. You don't have to touch any money, you don't even have to touch the number keys on the card machine. Ideal for pandemic times.