Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Unfortunately I really like the look of these and this is the Looks First Gear Selection Second forum, right?

Well a Bullitt or a Wallaroo (a longer Bullitt with Dutch bike middle bit, removable passenger cabin, hard to find) would be the way forward for the stockpiling of beer because gravity.

Joking aside, Bullitts are very good indeed. I´ve an Omnium and a Wallaroo but have done quite a bit of riding on hire and loan (mates, Ikea) Bullitts as well.

We've had quite a few enquires this week, lending (cargo bike plus big trailer) it out to folks wanting to move stuff from their offices to home etc

Do proper self-isolation for at least 2 weeks before going to see them - and don't take public transport.
Last night tried to explain to my dad the difference between "social distancing" (wfh, avoiding large gatherings etc) and actual self-isolation (no dad, you can't just pop down the shops or see your mates for lunch). We think it's probably ok if he drives round his friend's house occasionally though - they both live alone. Both widowers, 80 and 90.

If the reported fatality rates overall of 2% you'd be at about 1.3 million.

Peter Piot reckons one to two per cent. Remember, the UK has low intensive care capacity. Disclaimer: I´m a massive Piot fanboy.

I started to get a cough when skiing - we were there for two weeks, skiing ~40km/day.

This was in Morzine, first two weeks of January.

I then flew back to the UK, then ~12 hours later I flew to Utah for seven days of my work annual conference, which was ~1,500 people in a big hotel. I was definitely under the weather, very low energy (I had dinner once in the entire seven days, as normally I'd just pass out on the bed at 17:30), and was frankly struggling.

I came back to the UK and took a turn for the worse, energy levels sank even further and I developed a fever - tracksuit trousers, jumper, hoodie, under two duvets and still felt like I was freezing. I had to precisely time when I took paracetamol so that I could sleep an adequate length of time, as if it wore off whilst I was deeply asleep the feeling of being bitterly cold would wake me.

Energy levels really varied through the day - I'd feel almost normal at midday, then things nose-dived and I'd be wrapped in a duvet on the sofa, unable to find the energy to move at all for a couple of hours.

This went on for a couple of weeks, and I then eventually came back to being myself, but the lack of energy persisted for a long time afterward.

So how many people do you reckon you gave it to?

I definitely gave it to a colleague, but not to my girlfriend, unless of course she never showed symptoms. So hard to say, really - and it could have just been a cold/flu.

Anyone had any advice as to how long Royal Mail, DPD might continue to operate?

There are zero plans to close any shipping infrastructure that I've heard of, and I suspect there would be a lot of effort and support to ensure they don't stop.

Italian postal service is still operating.

This is all I’ve heard from Royal Mail (who do 90% of my shipping).

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Peter Piot reckons one to two per cent. Remember, the UK has low intensive care capacity. Disclaimer: I´m a massive Piot fanboy.

It's very difficult to give a single figure because of the wide disparities in fatality rates between different age groups - 0% for 0-9 years, nearly 20% for 80+ in Italy. The average IFR for a population will therefore depend on the demographics of the population - an older population will have a higher IFR. And of course given the susceptibility of people with pre-existing conditions, how healthy the population is overall.

AFAIK the Imperial model is the best that's public domain. I imagine the error factor is huge though.

Ive have 0 qualification in public health but my wife works at LSHTM and has been explaining the epi basics to me and I've been listening to their staff conferences.

As far as i can gather the inputs, at the moment, are changing rapidly. Once they have some more info on the serological profile of the virus it will get much more accurate.

We (international retailer) are expecting decisions today about keeping stores open. There's a lot of pressure from staff about staying open and not knowing whether the people they are serving are infected or not. We don't sell anything that would help with the virus but of course no stores = no income (reliant then on e-commerce).

Ask senior management if they'd want to go work in the stores. When they bumble and say no, they won't have much of a leg to stand on.

it's amazing how quickly all this is totally shifting basic stuff with employment, housing etc for folk.

Was looking at changing job/city and buying a place and now seems that's going to be shelved for at least a year and counting my blessings I'm (hopefully) insulated from the worst of it... So many poor sods on twitter stating they'll be bust by the end of the month, unable to pay rent makes it seem this is going to totally explode then hopefully reform the economy but will take a lot of pain and time to get there.

Would be nice to have the kind of leadership and government Norway and Denmark are offering right now!

Kids were being cunts this morning as I listened to R4 on long wave. Did your education secretary tell Parliament that the reason for not shutting schools earlier was that the economic cost would have been too high?

I went outside, the world is crazy... don't go outside.

In Crouch End there were queues to get in most shops, with shops rationing the number of people allowed inside so that everyone has lots of space around them. Some shops asking people to present the barcodes of items so that they can be scanned without cashiers touching the items. Most staff wearing gloves but none wearing masks. Perhaps 10% of people wearing masks, some badly fitting. No cash payments anywhere anymore, everything was card only.

The things that stumped me: The massive queue for hand sanitizer in Superdrug... but if people are home and washing hands with soap, why do they need it?! The totally empty shelves in the co-op (lots of panic buying happening).

Then there's the hints of economic impact. Signs in some shop windows, nearly all restaurants and pubs, and the cinemas... they have all temporarily closed. The place was dead.

I hadn't been out in a week, this is wow. Indoors one doesn't realise the mayhem occurring outside.

Shops on Green Lanes (overground station bit) were busy last night but not crazy and still had lots of things: rice, pasta, fresh fruit + veg etc. I can actually cook proper meals for the next couple of days at least.

What are the best charities to be helping at this point? I've got a load of stuff I was going to ebay and would rather used proceeds to help those in a bind right now, have increased by % salary charitable donation sacrifice so will be including this too.

Local food banks are my pick.
Pretty much always, tbh.

I'm going to try and help my local food bank

Can't use soap when you are in Superdrug. And you will need to go to Superdrug so you can restock on hand sanitiser.

Indoors one doesn't realise the mayhem occurring outside.

I have been indoors too since Monday evening and envisioning a lawless wasteland has left me feeling very anxious. Similarly, imagining the opposite has had the same effect.

Really worrying about the shopping/grocery situation not sorting itself out anytime soon and having difficulty finding formula for my daughter. My rational brain says we're fine, we have about a week's worth (normal supply, not hoarded), but do I go out now to try and get more in case I can't when we run out? It's not like I can ask her to wait a day and "try again tomorrow". She doesn't eat enough solid food to sustain her and she isn't breastfed. Then thinking about all that brings home (even more so than usual) that this is a struggle that far too many deal with regularly anyway, which then ramps up the guilt which feeds the anxiety and around and around and around....

I often find myself just thinking I'll go for a walk/drive just to see what the shops are like, but then worried I'll see carnage/empty shelves and worry more or if it's all fine, I will be being irresponsible about social distancing when I didn't have to go out at all.

The things that stumped me: The massive queue for hand sanitizer in Superdrug... but if people are home and washing hands with soap, why do they need it?!

Because not everyone is confining themselves to home and there's no easy access to soap and sinks when not at home.

Hand sanitiser gives you access to that peace of mind at any point.

Personally - I don't think having 2 weeks worth of food in the house, especially for your daughter, is at all overkill. It's weird I've got so used to being able to pick up a little bit of shopping every other day, but remembering when i was a kid it was just normal to have about 2 months worth of supplies in the house. Nuclear anxiety and all that.