• What's the expected end goal of the current lockdown employed by most countries?

    Obviously the immediate protection of life comes before everything else, but is it possible for the pandemic to subside/go away long term without either 'herd immunity' or indefinite draconian measures?

    I was happy to read that China's cases are going down while measures being relaxed, but this is a very contagious disease to which the majority of the population still has no immunity to. Is there any data yet to suggest it won't inevitably flare up again?

  • Obviously the immediate protection of life comes before everything else, but is it possible for the pandemic to subside without either 'herd immunity' or indefinite draconian measures?

    Yes, production of an effective vaccine or eradication through some seriously draconian measures.

    Is there any data yet to suggest it won't inevitably flare up again?

    No. It may well do. That's the risk you run with the suppression approach. You take the brakes off the restrictions on personal movement and the like, you get an infection, and the whole cycle kicks off again because the vast majority of the population are still vulnerable.

  • If you prove spread is controllable are you not in a better place when it flares up again? Does it also generate trust in the public too?

    Separate point; today's brief had a lot about the UK "beating the virus". I'm unsure what 'beating' will look like.

  • Yeah, so probably 6-12 months for a vaccine, and in the meantime fluctuating levels of continuing lockdown across the world to help health systems.

    Undoubtedly better than 8000,000 dying in the UK alone, but definitely makes me wonder why people are talking about in terms of weeks rather than months.

    Edit: Could some form of routine mass testing feasibly help in the mean time (along the lines of what's attributed to the success in Korea)? Allow greater levels of normality because flare ups are getting nipped in the bud earlier - or are all sorts of restrictions required for it to work?

About

Avatar for Brommers @Brommers started