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The economic impact will be significant, but what's the alternative?
I'm super fucking cautious, if the infection rate started to grow where we are I wouldn't hesitate to batten down the hatches and stay indoors... I know I'm probably more fortunate than some in that I've got some holiday pay and savings to fall back on but fuck money, staying alive/healthy has gotta be the most important factor right now...
I just cancelled our Easter trip to Sydney, annoying but whatcha gonna do...
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The alternative (and not my view) is that you carry on as normal knowing that you’re going to kill of a large number of eldsters and people with underlying health conditions who either already are, are or will be, a burden on the state for years to come. Saving loads more than £350 million a week for the NHS and claiming a huge success in reduced waiting times a year from now for routine operations. Slashing the cost to the taxpayer of the state pension and making free TV licences for the few remaining over 75s quite affordable. Could also free up quite a bit of housing stock taking the pressure off the green belt for a few years. Shame HS2 hasn’t been built yet so you can shave 30 minutes off getting it around the country a bit.
Again, not my view, just proposing an alternative.
Ramsaye
One difference is a very different mindset which we can see on the street between west and east. Your average westerners want to carry on as normal and moan about all the closures, the locals are much more cautious about things and want closures. The locals are something like 90% of the population so it’s their behaviour that has limited the spread. After the hotpot infection they stopped going out to restaurants at all, this stay at home behaviour has limited the spread as much as any government measure. As for those measures, schools are closed, parks, botanical gardens and all large indoor venues from the new opera house to sports halls were shut. Travel from infected areas had been stopped or controlled with mandatory quarantine in a government centre, these are mostly holiday villages with shit Wi-fi and a crap phone signal so a big deterrent. Pretty much all our cases now are imported or close contacts of imported cases.
Six weeks in and people are going spare, hiking trails are packed as it’s pretty much all you can do, kids are driving parents insane and people are begging to be let back into the office. They reopened some libraries, museums and sports halls this week to relieve the mental pressure a little.
Businesses of all types are failing and in large numbers, I was chatting to my favourite stall holder at the local market on Saturday, he runs an art stall selling his own paintings and those of his friends and he’s struggling. He pointed out all the stalls who have gone already and those packing up at the end of their lease. As you walk around their are more and more shuttered up shops. That’s the business you can see, workshops, factories and office closures are more hidden but are happening.
In short social distancing, whether by the government or by people making decisions not to go out works at stopping the spread but has huge economic impacts. Not all business will be able to ride out the storm.