• Fatality rate now considered to be 3.4%
    Tomorrow I might have a look at some data.
    Curious as to population age spread in different countries and how that might effect mortality rates.

  • It is just the total deaths over reported cases worldwide per the John Hopkins data (link in the first post in the thread). 3159 deaths over 92,818 cases.

    Leading epdimeioligists (Neil Ferguson, Mark Lipsitch) estimate the number of cases to be under reported by something in the range of 4x to 10x. Obviously the higher denominator implies a lower case fatality rate.

    On the flip side, deaths lag new cases, so during a period of rapid growth in new cases the case fatality rate is likely to be understated. You can't really calculate the CFR until there are no new cases and all cases have been resolved.

    On balance, there seems to be some consensus that a CFR around 1% is a good estimate at the moment.

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