Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

The eye medical correspondent, medicine balls and MD, is Dr Phil Hammond.

Check out his blog.

EDIT: Cross post.

I just had a look at his Twitter, he seems sensible. I had presumed it was yet another Eye column written by someone hiding behind a pen name.

The Eye use him because he's also funny, having been part of a comedy act etc.

Interesting point, the issue is that not only the old will be affected as illnesses such as this effect the population that are immunocompromised. So the ones that get the free flu jab and children.

The greater worry, I believe, is if there is a mutation that kills the healthy, such as the spanish flu pandemic did.

They're small batch oranges,grown on the hills of Naples or something.

Seriously though, there are many things to worry about here:
Wet markets
Transmission to new hosts
Unknown mortality
Speedy transmission
Worldwide connectedness
Winter strain on NHS
Austerity

This is from January.
And I think there's been a more up-to-date summary
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/01/data-suggest-ncov-more-infectious-1918-flu-what-does-mean

The greater worry, I believe, is if there is a mutation that kills the healthy, such as the spanish flu pandemic did

Even this is hotly disputed. There is a rival theory that the only reason Spanish flu didn't affect the elderly as badly as the young is that the old were alive for a previous similar flu pandemic that rendered them partially immune.

Still plenty of arguments happening about the hows and whys of Spanish flu.

This, if right, is good.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

My initial thought why more young people died of the 1918 flu:
It was world war I and they were in shit conditions and were immunologically stressed already.

There was also this table I posted earlier
https://www.lfgss.com/comments/15119612/
Suggested much higher mortality rates amongst the elderly - 3-8%.

Yes.
It's just getting lost in the noise.

And @Chalfie

From what I read, the spanish flu caused the body to over react to the virus

This is the first search hit, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/09/060927201707.htm

As I said, 100 years on and the debate among medical professionals is still continuing.

Local-ish (3 miles away, nephew goes there, tri club use the pool for swimming coaching) secondary/sixth-form closed for a week and a bit. One of the teachers has tested positive after a half term holiday in Northern Italy. They haven't had any contact with any pupils since before half term but, as a precaution, some of the other teachers are having to self isolate as they may have had contact. Insufficient teaching staff = school closed until 10th March.

Doesn't affect my nephew as much as he's lower sixth but the school is a destination for children from my daughter's primary school so I know a fair number of parents who suddenly have a Y7-Y11 child to look after for the next week.

Will UK gov plans include creation of temporary hospitals? I wonder if they will requisition buildings for that purpose?

Haven't read anything to that effect, but I hope it is in gov plans.

The UK plans for pandemics continuously so in theory these sort of arrangements were at least partially in place before the virus was detected.

Each area of the UK will have plans in place for various scenarios from what to do if the virus is relatively mild but overwhelms the NHS to what to do if it's very severe and mass graves are necessary.

When I was seconded to a pandemic team ten years ago, we brought the local coroner a new JCB excavator as that particular region would run out of burial capacity with only a 1% increase in mortality rate.

It's all a bit hazy in my mind as it was so long ago but I'm certain that at least some thought had gone into location and construction of field hospitals

If anybody is interested, this is the emergency preparedness framework that the UK follows.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/emergency-preparedness

London requirements in particular:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61032/Chapter-9-London-revised-March-2012.pdf

NHS one is here
https://www.england.nhs.uk/ourwork/eprr/gf/

Ha, thanks, was just looking for that.

Right.
So. Serious question.
What is the purpose of this thread now?

For me, information sharing. What should the purpose be in your view?

Wild eyed speculation and inaccurate comparisons. Clearly.

What is the purpose of this thread now?

A place where people can race to be the first to post random bits of news related to the subject.

https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/02/21/robert-peckham-covid-19-outbreak-need-strategies-manage-panic-epidemics/

Herein lies the rub. Communication, which is so central to public health, also turns out to be key to panic. Circuits of information can all too easily flip to become conduits of misinformation. The technologies that connect us have the wherewithal to drive us apart. Public health messages that seek to jolt us out of complacency can all too readily alarm us. Panic, in other words, can be a hair’s breadth away from prudent concern.

There’s also a thin line between misinformation and uncertainty, particularly in the midst of an epidemic. The identity of the causal pathogen may be unknown, its epidemiology obscure, and the spectrum of clinical manifestations confusing. All of this is grist to the panic mill.

You clearly have knowledge and experience in this area. My constructive feedback is that you could use that more productively to inform and educate people, which might help to allay concerns and correct misunderstandings. I would find that useful.

Apparently Spanish Flu barely caused a ripple by comparison. Newspapers barely reported on it. People tended to consider it an extension of the horrors of WW1. The global population was much more used to infection disease outbreaks as they were so common and widespread. Times have changed.