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IDS, Raab, Johnson, Patel then Gove is the understanding of the likelihood as far as I understand it.
From https://public.tableau.com/profile/christabel.cooper#!/vizhome/Time_15760854433110/Timings which was linked above:-
IDS = Chingford and Woodford Green - Expected declare 3am - Pred = Con Hold (2% maj)
Raab = Esher & Walton - Expected declare 3am - Pred = Con Hold (3% maj)
Johnson = Uxbridge & Ruislip South - Expected declare 4am - Pred = Con Hold (11% maj)
Patel = Witham - Expected declare 4am - Pred = Con Hold (43% maj)
Gove = Surrey Heath - Expected declare 3am - Pred = Con Hold (29% maj)
Greenbank
@andyp
IDS, Raab, Johnson, Patel then Gove is the understanding of the likelihood as far as I understand it.