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Fingers crossed. I'm optimistic as well from all the data points and anecdotes I'm encountering.
My worry is the late and intensive digital ad spend that the Tories are pumping out. Cummings replicating the approach from the referendum.
deleted-
I'm optimistic as well from all the data points and anecdotes I'm encountering.
Not trying to be a dick, but which data points? All I see looks like a small, but still sizeable enough Tory majority. And anecdotes are not worth much in a situation like this unfortunately, there is never any guarantee that they'll be in any way representative.
I'll gladly let myself be surprised of course, but currently I'm not seeing much pointing in that direction.
SwissChap
trend in polling points to a hung parliament as base case. that's only looking at the yougov MRP which has lots of dubious assumptions. correct for those assumptions and picture looks a lot rosier.
then throw in massive tactical voting + electoral map a lot better in 2019 than it was in 2017 + a lot bigger/more offensive ground game + a more canny and well-resourced momentum + HQ not actively working against the campaign this time + tories' electoral map has some severe structural weaknesses. I was optimistic at the beginning of the campaign; I'm even more optimistic now. as mike pence said on the eve of poll (during 2016 US election): "this doesn't feel like second place."
happy for you to take receipts and throw them in my face as we descend into the hard brexit hellscape at 10pm tomorrow, if you like