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I've never carried a spare battery either. Why would a spare battery make more sense than spare cables/junc?
BTW that's not how chance calculations work.
I know. But you don't understand how hippyluck calculations work. If I'm thinking about Di2 spares and decide not to carry any, there is 1000x more chance of Di2 failing...
6 continental crossings, no Di2 spares. But you know that just means it's more and more likely to happen. The one advantage I have is that I keep killing bikes so the wires/junctions are probably newer than most.