EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

I think we may be blowing that out of proportion:

1. When all sides are using social it's no longer a secret weapon
   
2. Cummings, for all his vaunted genius, came up with a campaign that was basically "fucking immigrants are stealing your jerbs", and a catchy slogan
   

And on that note... immigration attitudes have become very positive in the UK.

It is sad and frustrating the current cabinet/government doesn't seem to follow that.

Though there is some announcement today on EU citizen rights, but I expect it to be hot air until I see some hard guarantees.

It's nothing new - it's what the old government had already announced, but given a lick of paint and declared to be a Johnson initiative.

Declining the offer of forcing Tory MPs to line up behind Johnson in week 1 and give him the boost of a (fake) display of unity.

In the interests of sustaining optimism, here are my hopes (such as they are):

1 He sees off the fucktards of the Brexit party (actually a for-profit limited company). In this he achieves what Cameron failed to do, though the cost ofc is terrible.
2 He sees out Corbyn who, as young people and Jews are coming to see, has nothing to offer them. (Momentum falters, PLP internecine warfare.)
3 He is in good standing with Trump and, one earnestly hopes, is able to look him in the eye and tell him he's talking bollox.
4 GE within a year, some sense of normality is restored, resurgent Lib Dem party will be able to reassert the importance of central issues like climate change.

We live in hope 🙏

But fake unity is what the Tories do best/worst...

He's just sacked the whole of the old cabinet and told the whole party that they are now the party of No-Deal Brexit. If now is not the time for a VONC when is?

How do those things work?

You wait until you have enough pissed off non cowardly Tories to ditch the government?

Is that time now?

(also what a horrendous shitshow Priti Patel Cummings Raab...screams in void)

I predict people will continue to turn phrases in to initials for no good reason and, further, will add that annoying question at the end, no?

No Tory MP will vote down Johnson on his second day.

Still needs some defections / MPs resigning the whip in the wake of these sackings, to my mind. I think he'd still scrape through.

No Tory MP will vote down Johnson on his second day.

But they'd do so on the 28th? 31st? When is the best time?

When the risk of doing so doesn’t lead to your deselection as the candidate at the subsequent GE

That’s real now though- look at the Cabinet, loyalty to Johnson above all else is the requirement

Phrases In To Initials

PITI

When is the right time for vote of no confidence leading to an election?

For the LibDems and Brexit the time is right now, they had a surge in the EU election which would result in more seats the sooner the election comes. What Johnson does best is campaign and he is already in campaign mode "love bombing" his opponents seemingly being all things to all people. He is capable of winning Tory voters back from both sides of the divide.

For Johnson the best time to lose a vote of no confidence would be early October. That gives him the "get out of Halloween" card he desperately needs. The failure to deliver Brexit gets blamed on the other parties and the EU. He may have won enough support to be the strongest survivor of a November election. His campaign plans could even include a celebrity wedding to dominate even more of the press coverage.

As for Labour, I really don't know. In 2017 Corbyn showed himself far stronger than the critics expected, he rose above the standard denigration aimed at every Labour leader in opposition and gave millions of people hope. Since then it has all fallen apart. His personal preference for Brexit has him appearing as more of an ally of J Rees-Mogg than the majority of Labour supporters. The failure to understand the risks from the anti-semitism allegations have critically weakened him and the party. Maybe if Parliament manages to block or delay a no-deal exit on 31/10 then maybe Labour will profit from the chaos and recriminations in the Tory party as Boris' cabinet implodes and we get a December election.

His campaign plans could even include a celebrity wedding to dominate even more of the press coverage.

Really?

Corbyn is a man whose time has come, and gone.

My sister's comment, but I'm retailing it here because she's put it so neatly.

I'm retailing it here

Interesting to see what happens next.

^
this thread, in a nutshell

Who could replace Corbyn though?

Someone who isn't going to be seen by the majority of the Labour membership as a usurper who has tried to undermine the party, and alienate the left - ruling out Philips, Watson etc (who I really couldn't see myself voting for anyway).

And someone who is going to be able to stand up a bit better to the relentless media attacks that Corbyn has faced - or actually be seen as "electable", which basically means "not radical enough to fix the broken bits of this country."

And someone who can be palatable to the supporters who want Brexit and an anti-austerity party that actually looks out for them.

Suddenly it doesn't look so easy.

It will end up with one of those groups above being ignored, and that will be harmful to the future of the party. I know plenty of people down here who want Labour to go all out remain, without a care for the concerns or perceptions of the people who voted to leave.

Keir Starmer seems the obvious choice to me.

Can confirm - my mother has said that she would be able to bring herself to vote for him.

If the next Labour leader isn’t a woman, they should collectively hang their heads in shame.

ok cool. in the meantime, how about supporting the Labour Party because they are the only kids on the block who are dedicated to turning back the clock on the shitshow that is ideologically motivated tory austerity?