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I think you’re spot-on. The only thing that might scupper it for him would be a no-confidence vote somewhere in there from the opposition. But it would probably fail, unless very well/fortunately timed. And that would almost certainly need a number of defections to Lib Dems.
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Conversation with HoC.
c00ps
Chalfie
@Dammit
Who is that conversation meant to be with?
Boris has nailed his colours to the mast with his new Cabinet, plus making Mogg his Bercow/Grieve shield. He can't bring May's deal to the HoC, and he can't bring a different deal to the HoC because one isn't available.
If he's having that conversation with the EU 27 then the answer will be "Non".
He's betting that with Cummings on board and a position that makes BXP look lily-livered he'll be able to win a significant majority in a GE, then use that majority to do what he wants.
I'm betting also that he'll ask for, and be given an extension for said GE.