EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

It's brexit holiday season. After all parliament is busy watching the Tory leadership fight...em contest.

From one car crash to another.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-48583352

there we go AGAIN. Only Leadsom/Javid seem to acknowledge a lot of work has to be done, with Rory Stewart (the nice and reasonable Tory, hence he won't get in sadly) acknowledging there is no renegotiation and the UK just has to do the work.

Yeah, yeah, fun times ahead again...

Leadsom

I've lost track, they're all merging into one. Didn't she say that she'd just not bother doing the work - stopping parliament and crashing out?

As a mother she say that she'd just not bother doing the work - stopping parliament and crashing out?

ftfy

She's the one that goes on about a managed no deal, which is just the same as no deal.

Rory Stewart (the nice and reasonable Tory

He does seem like the grown up in the room, doesn't he?

I cannot for the life of me understand why Boris is even under consideration. The man is so obviously an utter fucking mediocrity. He is exceptional only in his level of delusion regarding how exceptional he thinks he is and for the fact that people seem to be unable to stop talking about him. Can we please just ignore him until he goes away.

so that when the inevitable shitstorm hits and the food rioting starts, they can plausibly blame it all on johnson and his incompetence rather than the tory party at large?

Boris Johnson may destroy the Tory party for a very long time. Like the Corn Laws, but then with more bluster and bad hair.

I am not sure the fallout from that is worth the price though! But he doesn't seem to be trusted internally either (like Gove, heh) but then looking at the other ones...

Well if there are food riots, I'm sure ROI will help. The irony will not be lost of anyone bar the completely head up the arse Brexiters.

Remind me when he get blamed and still end up being better off again?

No Deal/'managed' No Deal, hardly matters,
as, the next round of negotiations are about the future trading relationship,
and,
it would be incomparably better to be negotiating that from a position of having agreed
the Withdrawal process rather than as an economic and standards adversary.

which is just the same as no deal

Aka - the Mother of All Brexits

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/pm-contender-gove-knows-the-sash-identifies-with-orangeism-and-had-enormous-unionist-cartoon-in-office-new-book-reveals-38202620.html?fbclid=IwAR3UvF9r3z0A8JtLoCxAzAu5jGnpvwuzn9A-xkGDXWCk2fHZcc4-Kd1qtkI

Oh my word. I knew he was a bit orange and originally against the GFA (people are allowed to change their minds, though it's a bit of minus in my book for the reasons he was against it) but IF and IF he worded it like this:

"Mr Gove was strongly opposed to the Good Friday Agreement and addressed the issue in a study of the Northern Ireland peace process 'The Price of Peace' which compared the agreement to the appeasement of Nazis and the condoning of the desires of peadophiles."..." he is definitely not PM material with that line of black and white thinking.

Maybe I should read that essay, but then, maybe not!

Really not enjoying this "Brexit: Tory leadership battle" miniseries I have to say.

I cannot for the life of me understand why Boris is even under consideration.

The reasons are very simple--he was apparently funny on TV for a while, so people knew about him. Then he (or Lynton Crosby) ran two election campaigns against Ken Livingstone.

In the first one, Livingstone (who is no saint, obviously) was character-assassinated, especially by a series of articles in the Evening Standard whose veracity was not confirmed in later court proceedings as far as I know. He was also apparently very tired because he had a young child or young children at the time and couldn't campaign as energetically as before, leading to him to be perceived as a spent force ('it's time for a change').

In the 2012 campaign, Livingstone made the fatal mistake of attacking Johnson personally over his finances and his campaign immediately hit back with Livingstone's own tax arrangements. That was when you heard even longstanding Labour party members grumble about Livingstone. (I'd say he was probably the wrong candidate in 2012, but there weren't any others I would have considered.)

Anyway, this all gave Johnson the nimbus of being an election-winner, taking that big prize, London, and this is still how he is perceived by many Conservative Party members, especially outside London, who would not be as aware as Londoners of how venal and rubbish Johnson was as 'Mayor of London', a role he never filled (they might not care as much about that as would the people more affected by it). Some of his scandals have become public, like the Garden Bridge, but the real scandal is how little he did and how little he cared for the job while facing no effective scrutiny either by the London Assembly (not entirely their fault, as the Mayor of London is effectively unaccountable, Blairite-style) or the press.

In a nutshell, he's seen as familiar (having been on TV, similar to Trump) and an election-winner.

Johnson is apparently also extremely insecure and it is often said that he has a good feeling for what people want to hear, which he will then tell them. I haven't been able to confirm either.

Gove is essentially a sophist--reportedly a very good debater and persuader (classic sophistic skill) but with absolutely no understanding to back up the appearances he creates.

Perfect PM material!

Boris is one of the best and brightest right wing stand-up comedians of his generation. He has strong charisma and a need to be the centre of attention at all times.

Johnson is apparently also extremely insecure and it is often said that he has a good feeling for what people want to hear, which he will then tell them.

That is a useful skill for a quick witted comedian or fraudster.

In the London Assembly Question Time the opposition Labour+LibDems+Greens connived to ask Boris the same question three times in a row. It sometimes worked, by the third call he had run out of jokes, bluffs and diversions and was forced to deal with the issues.

best and brightest right wing stand-up comedians of his generation

tl;dr: Leadership vacuum.

It sometimes worked, by the third call he had run out of jokes, bluffs and diversions and was forced to deal with the issues.

Presumably that just taught him to prepare more jokes, bluffs and diversions?

so that when the inevitable shitstorm hits and the food rioting starts, they can plausibly blame it all on johnson and his incompetence rather than the tory party at large?

The party membership are further to the right than the average Tory MP. Poor people living a precarious existence, along with middle England fearing a precarious existence ..... will mostly shift politically to the right in hard times. Boris is promising hard times (and tax cuts for the few)!

It’s about all he can credibly promise to deliver.

We should have left the EU under May’s deal.

^ Poor (and any) people living a precarious existence actually are less likely to vote Brexit according to latest research, if you leave socio-economic class out of it, and ask how well people feel about their finances, the ones that are worried are less likely to be Brexit voters.

So it's the middle Englanders/pensioners with value in their house and no big worries that have done it.

There is still a bit more Brexit voting among certain income groups, but age is the strongest correlator. The BBC still has to catch on...

On the no-deal note: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48613921
Parliament rejects attempt to block no-deal.

Oh...for...

Voting for Brexit wasn’t the reserve of the political right, so I’m not sure why you’d use that example. I think it’s fairly well documented that when populations feel confusion and fear they historically often shift right, towards conservative politics ... no?

Voting for Brexit wasn’t the reserve of the political right: Well, mostly it was. (if you count the conservatives as right) and voting right is also correlated with age in the UK (the older, the more conservative voters)

Labour voters are mostly remain, the press zoomed in on Left Labour voters (which do exist) but forgot to mention that in those areas the voters for other parties swung it.

I think it’s fairly well documented that when populations are scared they historically shift right: In recent European history, I believe so. Looking at some other countries, yes, but you also see a mobilization of the Green party, new parties etc.

But it is not that Brexit was a massive victory exactly. The conservative party is looking to be buried, UKIP/Brexit party/Conservatives don't hold a majority in the EU votes, on a UK election current voting intentions aren't exactly "yeooo let's all vote Brexit Party" either and the Conservatives may get wiped out

There is a right swing (I mean Brexit party, yuck....) but it may not be a landslide either as other parties are also gaining over Conservatives and people may not vote Brexit Party cos what will they actually really do like UKIP they may simply not be attractive. We have to wait and see.

Labour voters are mostly remain, the press zoomed in on Left Labour voters (which do exist) but forgot to mention that in those areas the voters for other parties swung it.

A lot of those voters would potentially vote Labour though. They'll have gone from Blair's Labour to UKIP to Brexit Party and although some may hold their nose and vote Conservative to get Brexit through a lot still wouldn't and would vote Labour if not for Corbyn.

They weren't viewed as Labour voters though becuase they voted for UKIP in 2015 (who received more votes than the SNP & Lib Dems put together).

Boris is going to win, I think, but then what?

He can't renegotiate as Europe won't let him, he can't leave with no-deal as Parliament (despite todays vote) won't let him. He can't prorogue parliament, as Bercow won't let him.

He's going to have to find something that he can do that isn't going to fail - but what is that thing?

I think you miss understood my point so I’ll try again.

Boris being bad for the majority (whilst protecting his base) is of zero political cost to the rightwing of the Conservative party (the members) because the masses move right under the hard times he’s likely to bring in the future.

This is why members can believe he is both a/ somewhat incompetent, b/ the right candidate.

Who voted how in the referendum... is just a different conversation I think.

Leaving the EU with no deal.