Boris leadership 2019

Tastiest poisoned chalice of all?

https://youtu.be/A0TalLrtZ24

This article is superb (but very very long) if you want to know about the oddity that is Rory Stewart:

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2010/11/15/paths-of-glory-ian-parker

It seems quite revealing but is not particularly complimentary.

He's not going to win, but it's very entertaining to read about him and see him in action. He's every bit as nineteenth century as Rees-Mogg, but in a different way.

Stewart maybe doing two things here: telling the truth about Brexit in order to allow a debate, essentially acting as a human landmine clearance operative (by for e.g. running into the mine field) to clear a path for Gove, or he’s actually running for the Tory Leadership contest after this one, I.e. picking up the reins after Raab has fucked it.

Boris has launched...

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1135463459045466112?s=20

An early dig at Sadiq (in tune with Trump's tweet this morning), and a laughable attempt to claim interest in the NHS and "business".

More generally, he seems to be studiously avoiding any request for public/televised interviews or debates. Clearly he knows that he has an appalling track record (on which he would hopefully be mercilessly challenged) and that his usual technique of using his "charisma" to weave out of awkward questioning is less likely to work in high-stakes premiership debates.

Seeing as a lot of the other people standing for Tory leader could be summed up as ‘stop boris’, maybe this time isn’t his turn. But I can’t see the next Tory leader lasting beyond a few years, so then Boris will just reappear 😲

so then Boris will just reappear 😲

That would be the third time he'd have run for leader - having lost (pulled out) against May, then this one, then the next. I think if they decide against him this time, by then his time would definitely be up

I'm going for BJ and Raab in our office sweepstake.

Guido Fawkes' chart has already moved a fair bit since Friday, with Gove moving from 1st to 2nd:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hLVVTLnTTPIO43qTM7GsGs5GqvQ1UVGKmd_n1B51s5M/htmlview?ts=5ce7aed7&sle=true#gid=0

I think BJ is more likely to pick up the remain MPs as the others drop out than Raab, but my gut says leavers will flow to Raab. For the Tories I've spoken too they're torn over BJ - mayor is one thing, but PM? Yet he does have a strong brand with the population. Regardless of Gove's media ties, even Tories can see he photographs like someone wearing a human suit.

Still tempted by rabid Javid, but he seems too shit an orator to win an election.

Still tempted by rabid Javid, but he seems too shit an orator to win an election.

Compared with May he's positively sparkling!

Chat to Rory tonight

https://twitter.com/RoryStewartUK/status/1135511620539621378?s=09

By accident I saw Rory Stewart at Speakers Corner, rather impressed, the old Etonian is the common man ?

Are you here?

https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1135589556525424640?s=21

Boris and his manoeuvrings...

Was there but not in the picture.

If the final margin is only 3 MP votes in the leadership election will the outcome be the fault of the Change UK fiasco?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/04/change-uk-poised-to-lose-at-least-half-its-mps-heidi-allen-chuka-umunna-lib-dems
Will history record that by taking 3 moderate/remain votes out of the mix they delivered us a no-deal Prime Minister?

Thimble of cum

The timetable for the leadership contest

It then goes out to members on 22nd June, and a new PM is expected w/c 22nd July. That all feels slightly terrifying (in that the prospect of Johnson is becoming all too real...)

So is the weekend of the 15th / 16th the one when the papers get the opportunity to unload everything they've got on the unfancied runners? Or do they wait till the 22nd to whittle it down to just one?

I still don't think it'll be Johnson. This is their last opportunity to avoid electoral oblivion for the next couple of decades, and whilst the one in the headlines aren't admitting this, I imagine the majority of the Tory MPs know it.

I fear that Johnson will win. He seems to be keeping a low profile. In reality that probably means that he is ruthlessly targeting the decision-makers in one-on-one conversations rather than bothering trying to convert the masses. He knows that he is the strong favourite among members, and the members will be oblivious to the cut and thrust of what happens on social media, and, to some extent, the traditional media too.

Bookies certainly think so ;(

I forgot to mention that Johnson issued an appeal against the "£350 million" lie court case. It seems likely that he is trying to squash the case against him by racking up the costs for his crowd-funded accuser (i.e. requiring his accuser to raise further funds to defend this new case while Johnson doubtless has his own case paid for by one of his many wealthy supporters...)

Although it looks like Johnson's appeal might now be delayed.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9224650/boris-johnson-appeal-delay-ed-miliband-wife/

strong favourite among members

Do you think so?

The couple of Conservative members I know (one of whom is a BJ fanboy), don't think he is that widely liked by the members. So I'd be really interested to see some numbers either way.

Out of all the hopefuls he's the one I think will play best to the electorate. Ultimately out of a choice between him and JC, it seems pretty certain that BJ would clean up.

BJ fanboy

Aren't we all?

BJ would clean up

It's only polite.