Politics Chat.

Good interview with Charles Walker on WATO.

Good interview with Charles Walker on WATO.

And again today.

https://twitter.com/Cassetteboy/status/1129045200129671168

"Change UK is dying before it even learned to walk."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/16/change-uk-is-dying-before-it-even-learned-to-walk

Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. Surely there's still a place in the UK political scene for an ideology-free party based on spin over substance?

Latest YouGov poll is out. Conservative to Brexit Party movement is strong. Which ties in with the swivel-eyed loons story - https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/05/the-truth-about-david-cameron-and-the-mad-swivel-eyed-loons/

In 2016, David Cameron held an EU referendum he and most of his team believed was unnecessary and unwise, in no small part because of the pressure on him and his MPs exerted by Conservative members. He lost that referendum in part because he could not persuade enough of his party to support him and his campaign to remain in the EU. Some of the Conservative MPs who supported Leave did so not because they wanted to leave the EU but because they believed supporting Leave was the best way to curry favour with the Conservative membership.

Cameron’s successor, Theresa May, began her premiership by setting out red lines on Brexit that dictated a far, far sharper separation from the bloc than anyone on the Leave campaign had suggested during the referendum campaign. She did so not because she believed this was in the country’s best interest – she had voted Remain, after all – but because she believed that was necessary to satisfy a number of political constituencies including a Conservative membership she (at the time, anyway) cherished.

In 2018, she negotiated an exit deal with the EU that fell short of those red lines but still far exceeded the dreams and promises of Leavers just two years before. That deal thrice failed to pass the House of Commons, in part because it was opposed by Conservative MPs who privately regarded it as perfectly acceptable but did not dare support it for fear of sanction from Conservative members.

Later this year, it seems likely that those same Conservative members will choose Theresa May’s successor. The perceived need to appeal to their preferences on Brexit has persuaded several otherwise sensible MPs to claim that they do not fear and even embrace the prospect of leaving the EU without an exit agreement in place.

In short, the Conservative members fixated on Europe above all else have won. They got their referendum, got their Brexit and soon they’ll quite likely get their prime minister.

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Boris Johnson got a hair cut, hired a campaign manager and looks like he switched to fixed/ss.

https://www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-photo/pro-brexit-conservative-mp-boris-johnson-rides-his-bicycle-news-photo/1143971020

Boris Johnson got a hair cut, hired a campaign manager and looks like he switched to fixed/ss

Baby blue fixie

cunt.

Wow, it looks like Labour voters actually want to stay in the EU. Can someone please tell Jeremy?

Depends what you classify the Labour vote as in that graph I guess.

Also, 62% Con -> Brexit Party... faaaark. It's gonna be a horrible night.

(Edit: not that I want Cons to hold onto their seats generally)

It ties in with the idea of the loons, but I refuse to believe 30% of the country were swivel eyed loons before the referendum.

Dominic Raab makes play for 'feminist bigot' vote

incel / mgtow vote, more likely.

worthless cunt.

May making nice noises about tuition fees now she's got no power to do anything about it. Fuck off. Should have done it yourself if it's what you believe in.

At least she's trying to do something, I guess.

It was so sad at the end of Brown's term that he didn't have the [ insert adjective based on bias ] to do any of the things he felt strongly about.

At least she's trying to do something

Make nice soundbites to young people given the age of the party membership and potential slew of elections / referenda coming up?

She's no intention of doing anything about tuition fees, and wouldn't have even mentioned them had she been in a position to do so.

Perhaps May will "do a Miliband" and suddenly start to come across as human/likeable when the pressure is off.

Going by her last 10 years or so, I wouldn't bet on it.

Go back to your constituencies and...

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An electoral calculator that a guy on my Politics teachers' Facebook group (I know) suggests that even if the polling was accurate, we wouldn't have a Lib Dem majority (1983 all over again):

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Nigel Farage led Brexit/Con coalition. oof.

erm, maths

That would still be about 50 seats short of a majority.

The Lib Dems would probably sell themselves again for any policy other than Brexit (if you can imagine a time with government policy other than Brexit).

Farage being at the head of 172 seats would be terrifying. They'd be there for a while too. Do they even have that many candidates?

If we went into another general election without a clear resolution to the Brexit saga, I wouldn't be surprised if there were more defections.

A few Tories would probably go to Brexit, a couple might go to the Lib Dems, Change UK would probably join with the Lib Dems.

Brexit managed to scramble enough MEP candidates to stand with six weeks' notice, I imagine they could find enough willing prospective MPs to ride the Westminster gravy train in a couple of months.