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Tory vote collapses, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remainers by TIG.
Labour vote collapses to a lesser extent, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remian votes going to Green's and Lib-Dems.
I think perceptions are that the parties stand for:
UKIP/Brexit - no deal, scorched earth Brexit
Tories - hard Brexit
Labour - soft Brexit (but in actual fact, identical to the Tory Brexit)
Lib-Dems/Greens/TIG - ReferendumThen it's a count, votes for Tory/Brexit/UKIP/Labour are taken as "a strong mandate for Leave".
Votes for Greens, Lib Dems and TIG as "a vote for a referendum".
I think we're likely to piss the time remaining until Oct 31st up the wall, then we'll need something to give the EU in exchange for another extension. That might be a referendum.
The result of the EU elections I suspect will effect that, although maybe not in the most obvious way. I think it will be a Tory government still, but possibly without May - which is another variable.
Possibly too many variables to call, really, but the results of the EU election will be seen as the nation voting on what it now wants.
Dammit-
Surely the only direct route to a 2nd vote is with May still in charge. A new Tory lead is bound to be pro hard Brexit. A new Tory leader will in all likely hood feel duty bound to hold a general election so they can get the majority to push through there brexit and then all bets are off, hopefully the brexit party splits the Tory vote and we end up with a Labour, SNP and Lib dem coalition with a second vote at the heart of the deal.
HousecatHST
What electoral calculus do you feel is most likely to deliver a second referendum?