Jung-
Tory vote collapses, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remainers by TIG.
Labour vote collapses to a lesser extent, Brexiters soaked up by UKIP and Brexit, Remian votes going to Green's and Lib-Dems.
I think perceptions are that the parties stand for:
UKIP/Brexit - no deal, scorched earth Brexit
Tories - hard Brexit
Labour - soft Brexit (but in actual fact, identical to the Tory Brexit)
Lib-Dems/Greens/TIG - ReferendumThen it's a count, votes for Tory/Brexit/UKIP/Labour are taken as "a strong mandate for Leave".
Votes for Greens, Lib Dems and TIG as "a vote for a referendum".
I think we're likely to piss the time remaining until Oct 31st up the wall, then we'll need something to give the EU in exchange for another extension. That might be a referendum.
The result of the EU elections I suspect will effect that, although maybe not in the most obvious way. I think it will be a Tory government still, but possibly without May - which is another variable.
Possibly too many variables to call, really, but the results of the EU election will be seen as the nation voting on what it now wants.
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Weakening of the major parties drags this process out. I think time is the biggest ally to remaining.
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Dammit
miro_o
I think I'm reading the Owen Jones piece (at the top of the page) as: voting labour is the tactic for the softest likely brexit. Remainers are dreamers. Look at scary Nigel.
It's not convincing. The polls suggest it's the Conservatives that haemorrhaged votes on launch of the Brexit Party.