EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Dickchairs.

didn't know you were from New Zealand

Has this been resolved yet?

Has this been resolved yet?

wheres Tynan when you need an illustration of this collision?!

There aren't enough drawings of steaming turds in the world for this crash!

My prediction (for now) -
Cross party motion adding confirmatory referendum + customs union (+ some regulatory alignment) eg Labour's position + TIG + others, will be tabled for Weds and in with a very good shout of getting majority.
This will scare the shit out of enough ERG headbangers to support May's deal. Add extra bribes for DUP and she might just sneak MV3 over the line.

As weds will still be in parliament's control this might be via a run off, but think Letwin will be persuaded to include it.

Then we leave on 12th April, everyone goes back to infighting and the whole thing explodes again. Probably a GE, definitely ending up in backstop with this continuing for 3-5 years.

Just put a donk on it.

Problem with May's deal aka MV3.5 is Bercow saying no.

DUP will not support May's deal in any circumstances... they also voted against the other proposals yesterday.

But they may swing to Remain to protect the "precious / precarious" union per Dodds.

Ergh that guy is my MP and it takes a lot of votes to get him replaced...with SF who don't take their seats.

What I can't quite understand is what kind of Brexit the DUP want...

Would be amazing if they switched up to remaining at the end as they have begun softly whispering.

I know it's easy to assign things to malicious intent rather than stupidity, but the erg etc have played a blinder to get their no deal right?

Isn't it a similar brexit to UKIP, in that bitching about it for eternity is hugely preferable to actually getting what they 'wanted'?

Not really, 11 April we agree to hold MEP elections on 23 May. Extension granted and we bumble on for at least another 20 months.

They can't accept a hard border because it would be disastrous in NI. They can't accept different regulations between NI and UK because of unionism. Ergo there is no form of Brexit that they can actually support except BINO. But Tories hate that and DUP have attached themselves to the Tories.

I don't know if CU+PV would pass, Ken Clarke said attaching PV to it would probably cause it to lose more votes than it gains ("moderate" Tories/Labour don't want PV).

Hammond is apparently pushing for PV + May's WA which I think could pass.

.

+rep

Yep, that's exactly it.

Or accept and build hugely costly infrastructure to leave either CU or the SM, but I really don't see that work. Norway has much smaller goods volumes than the UK, and a more clearly defined border. And Switserland has queues too.

Hammond is apparently pushing for PV + May's WA which I think could pass.

Probably best we can hope for now.

At this point, I'd take it....thiswould mean long extension and eu elections though right?

Did anyone else think that Philip Hammond sending one of his minions, (apologies minion, I'm sure your day will come), to speak to Newsnight last night was a significant development?

Hammond may still be just a Tory, and has forced Austerity upon the economy,
but as Chancellor of the Exchequer, his threat to resign is worth the sum of the threats of all other Remain Cabinet ministers.

Cooper-Letwin-Benn attempting to put a bill through to prevent No Deal Brexit. (Debate on Wednesday, possibly vote on it on Thursday.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47789298

I reckon no deal exit on the 12th.

In case you didn't watch the Brexit thing last night

https://mobile.twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1113040474078670854?s=09

How did we get to this place?! About to leave the EU with no deal in place. Seriously, how!

No matter what you'd be planning or 'war gaming' with, every (rational) plan up to that date would have revocation as the last minute, doomsday scenario.
You could blame it on whatever you wanted - on Labour for not supporting the Will of the People properly, on the SNP or DUP for the same, on the EU for not negotiating in good faith and for imposing punitive exit conditions - anything. I'm sure you could make it palatable enough.

You could easily say that they're acting irrationally already, but I'm not sure if they are or if they are just following other priorities which will become less important as we come up to Brexit day.

At least I hope. I'm flying out on holiday on the 12th, initially booked to be a couple of weeks after Brexit day :(