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it seems obvious now in hindsight that it was reckless to call the referendum with no real thought or debate as to what course a brexit would take; that it was reckless to trigger Art 50 with no real thought or debate as to what course brexit would take; and that it was reckless to embark upon the negotiations for a withdrawal without seeking a cross party consensus as to what course brexit should take...at each and every turn, like some stolen steamroller piloted by a suicidal drunk the brexit machine has ploughed on, defiantly resisting any call to pause to figure out exactly where it was heading...
and now, in a final reckless effort to get brexit over the line the government wants parliament to approve the withdrawal agreement without any idea as to what shape the accompanying political declaration (which will determine our future relationship with Europe) will take. if the whole sorry brexit saga to date is anything to go on, that might not be a good idea. -
Please forgive me,
I cannot remember if it was in
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m00039mx
or one of the later
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p062h50y/episodes/playerBut one of the brexiteurs seemed to expect the EU to start negotiating with the UK by regarding TMay's Lancaster House speech red lines as 'negotiable'.
Why the EU should have believed this was not made clear, nor elucidated by the interviewer.When the EU used the red line staircase referenced on the previous page, this brexiteur seemed surprised that the EU merely showed the UK the exit door.
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Gary Younge in outstanding form today;
"The Tories lack discipline, direction, cohesion, coherence, substance, stature and credibility. They haven’t got a clue and they have no idea how to get one. With May’s promised resignation we will see the baton yet again pass from one failure to the next, each abdicating responsibility for the legacy they bequeath, none claiming ownership for the calamity they have wrought."
More here.
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GE rumours abound...
I don't think this is an impossibility if the vote fails tomorrow. Even ERG nuts might accept a long extension if they can ditch the DUP (and therefore backstop), earn another chance at no deal, replace May wit a Brexiteer with a nice working majority. And it allows them to ignore the indicative votes as the GE will be a proxy vote for Brexit strategy. And Corbyn is looking weak at the moment, although that backfired last time...
I said only a yesterday I couldn't see a GE happening, but I was imagining Corbyn/ERG/etc. calling a VONC, not May asking for a GE. She's in a position ask for the extension first, so the accidental no deal risk vanishes.
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if the WA doesn't go through tomorrow parliament will almost certainly vote to extend art 50 - the alternative of no deal has been repeatedly ruled out. then what?
even if the indicative votes procedure results in a parliamentary majority on something - there is no way Teresa May - or even less likely her successor - will be prepared to go to the EU to try and negotiate it. The only option that might have a chance of a parliamentary majority is some form of soft brexit with possibly a confirmatory vote attached to it - Teresa May has point blank refused to work towards any such outcome as it breaches tory manifesto promises - and i can't see whoever comes next if she does resign able to do so since those lining up have a rather firmer brexit mandate from their supporters than anything parliament would get behind.
so either parliament finds no majority after the indicative votes process and the executive is out of options...there can only be a GE as no other option.
Or, parliament finds a majority the executive will not deliver - deadlock - only resolvable by GE.As many here have said the idea of a brexit dominated GE is not in the least appealing
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Purely on Brexit, which is an appalling reason for a G.E., but the unfortunate likelihood of dominating electioneering in the event it happened, it's not clear that it would be smart for Conservatives to go full on for Brexit based on this report from Guardian last year on the breakdown of seats by updated Leave/ Remain polls which have presumably moved further toward Remain
Who knows. This is just depressing.
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A couple of excellent podcasts on the shit show that is Brexit. First an interesting interview with Sir Ivan Rogers, the former Ambassador to the EU, from the excellent Today in Focus podcast by the Guardian. He points out the strategic errors made by May and talks about how the challenges of negotiating with EUhttps://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2019/mar/28/cherry-picking-cake-and-fudge-how-the-eu-set-the-terms-of-brexit
The second a longer and more diverse approach as the BBC World Service asks political, cultural and business leaders from several countries (Germany, Nigeria, Canada, Egypt and India) how they view Britain. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w27vq3fv As a UK citizen living abroad, this series really resonated.
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Excellent from Gaby Hinsliff today.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/29/theresa-may-referendum-general-election
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Don’t worry, lads, I’ve a great idea to unite the country.
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Did we see this bit on Newsnight?
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Yeah, I watched that this morning over breakfast, fucking brilliant!
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breaches tory manifesto promises
BBCR4 World at One, Yesterday, Kenneth Clarke demolished the 'manifesto pledge'.
The manifesto came out late, well after the GE campaign started due to TMay's trigger reflex,
was never discussed, apart from the social care 'Death Tax',
and,
he claimed he was never even sent a copy! -
Who's got guesses on "MV3" numbers?
I reckon a defeat by 41. Vote's after lunch. Let's have some wild speculation
dicki
carson
mespilus
andyp
frankenbike
welpeur
TheLeek
Aroogah
Dammit
Soul
Scrabble
dubtap
HousecatHST
Ricochet
rhb
mashton
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About
EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath
Posted by
Or bank it all on young voters / non voting remainers. That can work for Labour as most of their members are remain.
Conservatives no, too many leavers / older mostly leave voters.
But of course the labour party prefers to ignore any research and infight.