EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

They won't. They haven't for the last two years, they're not going to now.

Although the original EU position was that the UK would need to pick an off-the-shelf deal and no bespoke deal would be possible. Yet May's WA is a bespoke deal. The EU does soften, but glacially, certainly not fast enough for the rejigging of deals required now.

Of course the EU are going to state that they're not going to negotiate any more on May's WA, to say otherwise would be inherently foolish. But that doesn't mean they won't (I don't think they will).

I'm guessing that May is just going to keep pushing minor variations of her deal (rolling the turd in glitter or adding cherries on top as required) in a horrible game of chicken with the EU believing that the EU won't let us go out without a deal in place. If the EU doesn't blink (I don't think it will) then she'll be left scrabbling around for an extension.

Various quotes today about a 2nd ref taking a minimum of 22 weeks from start to finish, not enough time to get it done by the EU elections in May (22 weeks from today is 19th June). This is why the calls for a second referendum (without revoking A50 first) are essentially doomed.

I'd quite enjoy it if she was actually still clinging to her pre-referendum Remain beliefs and is purposely dithering in order to end up with no choice (her deal, and successive deals, all voted down; no deal not an option thanks to Parliament; out of extension time; not enough time for a 2nd ref; etc) but revoke A50, take the wrath and toddle off out of politics (2nd PM in a row to disappear leaving someone else to sort out a steaming pile of shit).

My predictions:-

• 30th March 2019 we'll still be in the EU
  
• A50 will be revoked at some point, however...
  
• another referendum will be called, somehow worded to give people more choice in the type of Brexit they want and using some form of STV or preference system
  
• If there is a form of Brexit then it'll effectively be BRINO (retain freedoms, still in customs union, etc)
  
• Next GE (whenever that is) will be a hung parliament
  
  

Other than staying in the customs union there hasn't been a permanent solution proposed for the NI/Eire border problem that doesn't shit all over the GFA.