EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

The flatearth brexiteurs, John Redwood, Owen Paterson, probably Ian Duncan Smith
seem to believe that the UK can just walk away from the EU,
but planes will still fly, goods will still be imported/exported, international Post will still be delivered, because (rather like Dominic Raab and his bewilderment at the volume of goods/hgvs that flow through Dover-Calais), they have connotation of all the administration that is simplified by membership of the Single Market & the Customs Union.

Oh I'm not arguing for a second that a no deal is fine, or in any way remotely acceptable. But one needs to face up to the reality that it can and will indeed happen if Article 50 isn't revoked, or a some deal worked out.

Also 'flatearth brexiteurs' is a great description.

As you noted above, TMay has just spoken some sense about brexit.
She is where she is because of the red lines drawn in her Lancaster House speech written by Nick Timothy, (and no-one voted for him).
30 months in, we are finally getting some clarity into the debate.
Assuming you are not buying foreign currency for holidays etc, sit on your hands and wait.
A week is a long time in politics.

It felt that 30 minutes was quite a long time in politics today.

He waved the mace around his head and got the nick name....'Tarzan'...c.1976.

Indeed. Some row about pairing, I believe. Sadly no pictures in the House back then.

Odd nickname to get for standing there in a pinstripe suit, with neatly coiffed hair, waving gaudy accoutrements to some ancient pageantry ritual though? Not exactly loincloths and jungles.

What on earth do you mean, 'magically happen'?

Not sure, I didn't word that very well :)

The point was yes you're all quite right and if the government and Parliament literally does nothing at all between now and 29th March there will be a no deal Brexit with no legislation to make it work in practice.

But politically this is untenable. The Commons is fundamentally an anti-Brexit legislature and they aren't going to sit on their hands between now and March 29th.

May's current strategy is largely political sabre rattling - she needs to make a no deal Brexit feel like a real and present danger because she wants Parliament to accept her deal (which they aren't going to, because they think it's crap). Apart from the tiny number of 'flatearth brexiteurs' nobody in the commons wants or believes in no deal, so the reality is that's not going to happen either. The power of Parliament has been demonstrated very well a number of times over the past few weeks: May is ultimately not running the show, despite what she might want us to think.

Yesterday plenty of political commentators - including George Parker from the FT and Katie Balls from the Spectator, for example - were agreed that another referendum is the most likely outcome, but May's deal could take months to die. What worries me is that she could potentially drag it out for so long there's not enough parliamentary time left to clean up the mess, but she might not last that long so we'll see.

What worries me is that she could potentially drag it out for so long there's not enough parliamentary time left to clean up the mess, but she might not last that long so we'll see.

This is the issue, she's trying to play Russian Roulette with leavers telling them it's her deal or no brexit and the remainers it my dealing or no dealing.

The problem is Labour can't do anything other than a confidence which they'll loss.

It currently looking like we're going to sleep walk into no deal.

Two fun political facts this morning:

According to PA, the government spent £96,684 on Facebook ads promoting May's deal (that we don't get to vote on).

YouGov approval ratings for next PM (yes those are minus symbols not an alternative to bullet points).

-18% Sajid Javid
-19% David Davis
-21% Dominic Raab
-23% Amber Rudd
-35% Boris Johnson
-45% Michael Gove

Apparently a helpful explainer the HoC produced on when the next vote will happen suggests TM thinks it could happen as late as March 28th (petrified emoji face).

As @mespilus points out a week is a long time in politics. I don't think she's got a cat in hell's chance of staying PM till March personally.

I'm just picking up on May's surprisingly clear words yesterday, and the stark negative implications for each "alternative solution" that can be delivered.

So a second referendum "risks dividing the country again, when as a House we should be striving to bring it back together." Is that it? Is that the biggest threat? I'm in! Isn't the country divided every time there's an election? And how much of a problem is this divide? Worst case scenario: civil war. Best case scenario: Entrenched positions causing heated debates on social media and phone-ins. Much closer to the second scenario, I reckon. Maybe the odd violent skirmish at a protest. And besides, when the referendum results are more than reversed to 58/42 in favour of Remain, there'll be fewer people on the losing side to bang on about The Will of the People. ;-)

Every government department has prepared statutory instruments that fix all our laws that rely on provisions from the EU.

They're supposed to have.

They are 236 down since June, with 764 564 464 to go by March.

(The target number is being arbitrarily debased)

Do you have a link for the yougov poll?

It was a Yougov poll for the Sunday Times last Sunday, so Yougov didn't put the full results on their site.

This is the Times article:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who-do-the-public-support-for-next-pm-none-of-them-t6xmcpf62

You can see Davis/Raab/Rudd without a login but I can't help with the rest of the article I'm afraid.

I find the risk dividing the country quite funny...NI is pissed off, Scotland is pissed off, Wales is feeling a bit silly and change its mind. Is she is talking about just England again? :)

From the article:

Net approval rating is measured by calculating the difference between the number of people who think a candidate would make a “good” prime minister versus the number of those who think they would be “bad”.

In which case, those are probably optimistic numbers. Did lol at Gove's -45% tho

looking on from afar I'm so sad the UK is in such a fucked up pickle, I don't understand a lot of it but picking up it's brining a atmosphere of vitriol and that hate is rising, could there be a kick off and riots like 2011 ? The less fortunate being dumped on as it's always them that suffer most esp under the Tory rule. what's the feeling in London and other city's ? I just worry things will spiral out of control. Does any one know what's going on ?

Also, May is only at -28% which really puts Johnson and Gove into perspective.

Does any one know what's going on ?

wtfigo is pretty much the issue

what about JRM?

I guess but that feeling of uncertainty hits me here so fuck knows what it's like there!

I feel like we're all sleep walking our way into either a disaster or a near miss.
I'm disappointed I haven't done more to get out, but then I thought "this isn't going to happen".
I'm disappointed the level of stubbornness and inability to say "right, nobody is going to get exactly what they want, how do we achieve something none terrible?"

Also: I am so disappointed that people who want out are willing to take the worst possible option and then fuck off by dying leaving the mess to their progeny.
Also: Scotland, Wales, NI, impossible to understand what the vibe is beyond "fucking westminster, fucking typical english"

it's the taking the country down a hole for political gain that is very depressing. or I may have read it wrong even so it's fucked up.

could you relocate out of the UK ?

Out.

Because I'm unbelievably interested in the mechanics of it and voting out is the only way to see it happen.

At least the theatre and spectacle of it all hasn't been a let down. 10/10 Brexit, would see again.