EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Yes the 'Will of the People' is a very scalar quantity. John Redwood's constituency voted to Remain. He ignored this localism.

relax @ ride boys...politic discussions...hmmm...
All scenario is pre-decided by top elite (shadow @rich) anyway,Politicians are just a messengers. Here now,gone tomorrow.Itsa bit sad but Elite will continue no matter what we want,if we like it or not.
Knowingly its all a bit flustrating to see how this system works ...
I wish that normal people like us can unite and stop believe in politicians.
That is my humble wiew....no offence to anyone

You should lay off your user name for a while.

Momentous day.
We all get to see the legal opinion(s?) underpinning May's view of the Withdrawal Agreement. The MWA will be voted down by Parliament.
The Grieve Amendment means Parliament can vote down a HardBrexit/No Withdrawal Agreement.
Senior ECJ Counsel (?) states UK can unilaterally revoke its submission of Article 50.

Just need the Electoral Commission to draw up new regulations regarding social media & election campaigns and we could be in line for the People's Vote/ 2nd EU Referendum,
with a sensible minimum turn out, (75%?), and a minimum majority, (55/45?), for it to be valid.

Don't forget that there's also a case being fast tracked in December to decide if the referendum was even valid based on the shenanigans around the leave campaign. Imagine if it's declared invalid, what happens to the will of the people

Always a good time to repost this.

Thanks for that encouraging reminder.

Second referendum: this requires legislation, legislation cannot (I believe) spring forth from parliament like Athena from the skull of Zeus, it needs to be introduced by the government.

Therefore for there to be a second referendum we need the government to introduce the legislation for said referendum.

Now for that to happen the government must want a referendum - something that May has ruled out.

She does, it must be said, have a habit of caving to the EU - but not it must be said to parliament.

I think to get a second referendum we would need a new government, first, and then we'd not have the time for a referendum - or really the need, as the election would essentially be a referendum, if one party came out for remain of course.

Well pie in the sky it may still well be though...

TMay has called the 'brexit divisions corrosive'.
As a Chemist I object to her misusing a precise word.
Corrosive materials have to be properly labelled to prevent contact with the skin, eyes or respiratory system, but the damage is done relatively quickly.
Skin will be destroyed by contact with the commonly encountered concentrated mineral acids, (sulphuric, nitric, hydrochloric), or alkalis, (sodium hydroxide NaOH, drain cleaner).
Unless you encounter a large spillage/splash, the skin will slowly recover.

TMay is mostly wrong on the timescale. Many leave voters were just wound up by the emotive phrases of the Leave campaign, brexit for them was just a 6-month effect. UKIP topped out at about 14% nationally, but often ran at much lower levels, except at the Euro Elections. These people have been suffering from brexit for years. 26 years ago John Major faced down his Maastricht Treaty b4st4rds. Some Tory MPs, supporters and funders can even pre-date this event and some claim to have been against the EU, well European Economic Community, since 1973.
A 45 year affliction requires the phrase 'suppurating and necrotic'.
A festering, pus-filled mindset that destroys those afflicted, and damages those drawn into an endless discussion where there is no common ground.

Today has been quite a learning day for TMay and her Whips.
The primacy of Parliament over the Executive has been triply confirmed.

Her Withdrawal Agreement will not be accepted by Parliament.
The EU have said it is the only possible WA, (based upon her Lancaster House speech red-lines), so no finessing allowed.
The Grieve Amendment rules out a 'No Deal' brexit.
Is there another way forward than to check the 'willofthepeople' with a 2nd Referendum?

However, May went on to open the debate with a defiant speech, which some at Westminster said sounded like a first draft of her own political obituary, with the future of her government in doubt.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/theresa-may-staggers-on-after-three-brexit-defeats-in-single-day

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OdMcbLT3jSY

HARDtalk: Pro-Brexit Conservative MP, Owen Paterson http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3cswjfz
Owen Paterson quickly demonstrates to an incredulous Stephen Sackur how he was outwitted by badgers.

^
Bit sexist.

I've just finished catching up on this thread after three months of living in Italy and not reading/watching the UK news. Can I check I've got this right?

May's Brexit is rapidly derailing (cf. yesterday's triple whammy) and it seems less and less likely she'll be able to get her deal which nobody is really happy with (probably including her) through Parliament.

However. Unfortunately what this means in reality is a hard Brexit is now more likely, unless Brexit doesn't happen at all, which is simultaneously also more likely because Grieve's amendment gives more control back to MPs, but don't hold your breath on that one. It has now clearly been established by someone in Europe that the UK has the right to self-withdraw from Article 5o though, so that's something.

What remainers therefore have to hope is that somehow MPs will actually make a sensible decision ahead of a hard Brexit and either pull it entirely or take it to the electorate who, seeing what's on offer, will collectively issue a resigned sigh and vote by more than 50% to not take the risk even if they're not exactly enamoured with Europe.

Meanwhile dashing Sir Keir Starmer (KCB, QC, 56) has pulled off an incredible political feat by getting Parliament to find the government in contempt, but nobody is really sure what this means and there's no actual punishment for it, other than having to perform a rapid public U-turn which Andrea Leadsom is obviously extremely unhappy about because it doesn't fit well with her agenda of reviving her leadership ambitions by upstaging the Prime Minister whenever possible (such as by bringing life into the world). But what it does mean and something which everyone can certainly agree on is that the full legal advice will be published in full, in it's entirety and in it's fullness.

Nobody has been able to read it yet though because it hasn't been published yet, so nobody knows what the government was trying to hide, or not trying to hide, because nobody has read it yet, making it something of a political Schrödinger's Cat.

Meanwhile Liam Fox has just said there is a risk MPs might "steal Brexit from the British people" which suggests that he really still doesn't seem to get it, because why would anyone steal something which nobody seems to want.

Is that about right? I'm not sure what's happened to David Davis (I imagine he's somewhere in Europe in a sticky situation leaving an answerphone message for TM right now) or who the Brexit secretary is.

As I've said before, I think May will be Prime Minister until 2021

I am also curious if @Oliver Schick still thinks this after yesterday.

Meanwhile Liam Fox has just said there is a risk MPs might "steal Brexit from the British people" which suggests that he really still doesn't seem to get it, because why would anyone steal something which nobody seems to want.

Pretty accurate, although regarding this bit: a lot of people still seem to want Brexit. Maybe not enough to win a referendum again but it would still be a close run thing.

Remain's best chance of winning any referendum is a prolonged cold snap.

dashing Sir Kier Starmer (KCB, QC, 56)

God, he is, isn't he? I feel a bit weird about it.

Your summary looks good, but you forgot the bit where Jacob Rees-Mogg persuaded Dennis Skinner to vote with the government (and Kate Hoey) against the Grieve amendment

Savage

It does make you wonder if there's an ulterior motive behind those free flu jabs though, doesn't it

It's Keir Starmer and it's not it's fullness. Your word cloud would be a national embarrassment.

Or a massive internet failure so those millenials can be torn away from their tinstasnapbook and actually persuaded to vote! Amirite?

amazing