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If Boris is the PM fighting the GE in Autumn then I reckon it'll be a Labour+SNP coalition government that takes England and Wales out of the EU, with Scotland remaining and NI given a referendum on re-unification, which on current polls will lead to a single Ireland in 2019:
If UK leaves EU
Yes: 57%
No: 43%If UK leaves EU with a hard border
Yes: 58%
No: 42%The UK will be England and Wales, Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Man. Not sure on the Falklands and Gibralter.
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A helpful summary of the 'no deal' report they published earlier
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Quite funny replies to this tweet
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So we (my wife and I) have been planning a move to Valencia, Spain for a year now, with a planned departure date of April 2019. We always worked to the idea that we would respect the status of EU citizens in the UK and vice versa until at least December 2019, which most experts agreed was likely under any transition agreement.
Now, with no-deal an increasing threat on the horizon, how concerned should we be? We are approaching go/no-go in terms of letting out our house here for a year and selling/storing belongings etc., so need to start making a decision. It can't really all go to shit can it? And will we require normal visas or to use a visa waiver program if it does?
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Nobody knows unfortunately.
It -can- still go to shit.
Because the EU negotiates as a group and so if there is no withdrawal, there is no EU rights system and individual countries have to make decisions.
Now I don't think it is too likely the EU will let it get this far [on citizens rights I expect them to honour at least something], but there are no guarantees and some EU goodies like pensions/healthcare may not apply. Unfortunately it is pie in the sky atm as citizen rights are not ringfenced in the negotiations.
the 3 million / brits in europe groups may have more info.
You could check spanish immigration law, maybe it is quite relaxed as it is for people outside the EU and you could apply and pass easily, I've no idea.
Because if that is easy in the very worst case scenario if it is easy to get a visa perhaps it is worth the risk, because then whatever happens you should not have any issues with staying, I suppose, in a logical world.
I don't want to worry you, but unfortunately nobody still knows! You don't have any Irish ancestry I take it?
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Got to be better than staying here
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Because the EU negotiates as a group and so if there is no withdrawal, there is no EU rights system and individual countries have to make decisions.
How does that work? If they negotiate as a group, don't they have a common visa arrangements. Once you're in the Schengen area nobody is going to check your passport at internal borders, so won't there be a common EU policy on what UK citizens require in the way of a visa to get in?
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There's some excitement about a NatCen panel data that shows a marked move in favour of Remain.
Here's an article that discusses it.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/what-might-lead-voters-to-change-their-minds-about-brexit/
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Lord King laying into the 'plan' or lack of...
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" If they negotiate as a group, don't they have a common visa arrangements." Freedom of movement is not quite the same as a travel visa. There is something in the Brexit negotiations for Brits after Brexit, it means that you cannot work cross-border as easily, you are "tied" to the EU country that you came to before the transition ends.
So if you go to Spain, you have to come back to Spain.
There is a EU schema for certain roles, but if you want to immigrate and work as a cleaner after Brexit from what I know, ATM, you will fall under 3rd country immigration rules IF you got after the transition/there is no deal. As you are not an EU citizen anymore after Brexit so the FOM framework does no longer apply.
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A bit of a tangent but this is quite interesting (you only need to read the first two pages)
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Why aren't MSM covering this event?
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I've literally just got back from it.
Dammit
boristrump
JWestland
beseku
Howard
aggi
Cutthroat_Jake
ffm
c00ps
Lebowski
WillMelling
Oliver Schick-
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EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath
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I think a lot of this is ignored. If you look at the most deprived boroughs they pretty much all voted Leave. They're not all full of comfortable, retired home-owners (or if they do own a home it's worth £50k).
A lot of these people are still pro-Brexit, there hasn't been a seismic shift in opinion. If Brexit is overturned by a narrow margin (which looks like a possible scenario) but these people are ignored there are going to be a lot of very pissed off people.
There'd be a pretty good chance of UKIP getting enough seats to actually directly influence policy at the next election for instance.