EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

No deal, no deal, no deal.

Think the question is now can Mays government survive until Brexit day with no deal?

So what is your take on what Reese moggy said about your lot?

If G4S can, may can.

English colonial attitude on NI at its best. Hasn't a clue. Thinks ROI will jump for the old empire and those days are over.

Not a very kind or in-depth analysis but I'm out of patience. His EU are tyrants and ignorance spiel gets tiring.

Two faced on EU nationals rights also as be voted against before and now he's all "let them stay".

So em he can jog on as far as I'm concerned!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

More good news, Panasonic HQ going to Amsterdam... :/

I'd say a very kind and in depth analysis.

Mine take is clueless fuckwit. But he still gets voted in. HOW?

He plays a certain role which some people like.

I don't consider politics to be threatre, but perhaps I am looking at it the wrong way. My grumpy dad considers it to be that, and perhaps some politicians treat is as threatre and win votes that way.

Same way any populist gets voted in. Tell people their simplistic, prejudice-driven understanding of the world is true, promise them that if brave people stand up and back him he will apply the simplistic, prejudice-driven solutions they believe will fix all that they think is wrong with the world, and tell them anyone who says reality is complex and the simplistic, prejudice-driven solutions won't work is either out to con the decent public or is just too dumb to see what is obvious.

And simplistic, prejudice-driven people believe him because what he says is exactly what they already believe to be true.

Dunning Kruger, basically.

I'm reading Robert Peston's book WTF at the moment. He makes a strong argument that while we remainers spend a lot of time railing against the retired home-owning euro-sceptic gammons, we shouldn't bother, a) because they'll never change their mind, and b) because loud as they are, they didn't win Brexit on their own. He makes the point that Brexit would never have reached 52% were it not for the gammons forming an unlikely voting bloc with those at the bottom of society, i.e.

• people on zero-hours contracts
  
• people whose regular jobs have been automated
  
• people made to move out of their homes because of the bedroom tax
  
• people otherwise affected by austerity
  
• people for whom their areas have become unrecognisable too quickly (I'm from Dagenham, I've seen this first hand)
  
• broadly speaking, people who were angry, didn't think things could get any worse, and wanted to give Cameron and Osborne, those posh twats, a poke in the eye
  
  

While I don't give a monkeys about offending gammons, I do worry that if we manage to reverse Brexit without addressing the concerns of this latter group of people, we'll just end up with the same anger coming out in other ways.

I do worry that if we manage to reverse Brexit without addressing the concerns of this latter group of people, we'll just end up with the same anger coming out in other ways.

I think that's going to happen even if we don't reverse Brexit. Brexit certainly isn't going improve things for them. But I agree that if Brexit does get stopped it ideally needs to be through another ref or a general election if there is a hope of reducing the division it's already created.

My current best case outcome is something like this:

March 2019:
UK: Shit shit shit we still haven't got a deal and run out of time, we are about to crash out, ground planes etc. Eu, you have got to give us an extension of A50 for all our sakes

EU: Ok then, but this isn't a license to fuck around for another two years. Tell us how long you need to agree a deal with us or decide on no deal, cost and plan for it, and get the day 1 infrastructure sorted. We will extend once by the amount of time you ask for, on the condition that between deciding, costing and planning, and actually starting work, there is a milestone where you have another referendum to decide between the fully fleshed out Leave proposal and remaining in the EU.

That'd be almost ideal - lots of bum squeaking but get things sorted out democratically.

But it kind of proves my point. While we're all focussing on the technical ways of getting through Brexit, we're not actually doing any work for the people who did the eye poke in the first place. We're not actually having a conversation about what we do for people whose jobs are taken by automation. We're not discussing how we can look after or educate people who can't compete in a global marketplace for jobs. We're not renovating the welfare system, and we're not talking about when we can finally end austerity. We're not actually solving the root of the problem; and that's one thing when it comes to preventing another Brexit, but it's also a moral failing which we should look to for the sake of our own souls.

Have you been to North East Somerset??

Last point is true, didn't get how much the EU helped whilst being screwed for years by the Tories.

No, and you're not selling it to me ;)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/02/michel-barnier-strongly-opposes-may-brexit-trade-proposals

^ It's like brexit groundhog Day, again.

Loathsome man continues his campaign to become PM

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmHrGbrXcAEgDHh?format=jpg&name=large

The scandal of Boris is that he’s really tried - and failed.

He’s had two years to deliver, who’s to blame for that if it isn’t him?

The man is a mendacious fraud.

The EU, obviously. That’s who is to blame for Boris not being the messiah.

Or May.

But that headline is saying we've failed though?

Some analysis of 'no deal'

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Cost-of-No-Deal-Revisited.pdf

They way things are going I cannot shake off the worry that both BJ as PM and no deal departure from the EU could very well happen.

On the upside, well, a very slight upside as that will come at high cost as well: A hard Brexit -may- re-unify Ireland. Bye bye colonial attitudes of the Tories.

I think that is too early atm, there is too much hurt that is too fresh and ROI is not yet secularized, the political integration is not there yet, it will require large loans, the economy in NI is not yet very diverse with many working in civil services, what happens to pensions.. etc.

But if it is the choice between a flag on your door and if you/your kids have a job, I think the moderate unionists will swing towards unification.

But calling a border poll is actually up to the Sectretary of States, eg, an English Westminster politician. A Tory atm, again. So, it may be the proverbial rock and a hard place. Again.