EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Just posted to add some extra colour and because it cites some figures that I wasn't aware of - It is however noticeably heavier on data than "anecdotally". Interesting re the figures about the make-up of the leave vote. They don't seem to play to the dominant narrative on the thread.

That said I don't know anything about Prof Goodwin. Link provided to a lot of his Brexit stuff in case anyone wants to read (I don't have time).

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/author/matt/

This fella's having a bit of a laugh here, surely.

15,000 nazis marched down whitehall just 2 months ago, in the biggest far-right rally in the UK for almost 90 years. Owen Jones pointing that out isn't even slightly the same thing as saying "Britain is in thrall to the far right".

He seems to be trying to say that Britain, as a whole, won't vote in large numbers for overtly racist parties, which is fine. He's being a bit silly by suggesting that has much (if any) effect on the motivations of far right goons who are freshly-emboldened and gathering in worrying numbers.

He cites some data on the UK votes, but he doesn't do a particularly good data compare on "the UK resisting populism". Could have been more precise there, sorry!

You know the old saying about statistics...some use it for support and some for illumination :)

There is also quite a bit of parsed data that anti immigration sentiment (and a lot of that is often subconscious, like a lot of our prejudices are) are stronger in leave voters.

The Commonwealth voters were also promised easier immigration for their birth country people, which of course was reverted as another "promise" like so many.

This could explain the leave voters among BAME voters but there aren't good statistics to draw conclusions from that quote so could be talking out of my behind, and would not want to put that forward in an article with the same surity.

It is pretty hard to unpick it all, as it is also unfair to use the "racist working class" stereotype bandied about, it doesn't confirm with the data either.

It is easy to quote a few numbers like that writer does, but it is not so easy to draw the conclusions they want to draw I think. But would be nice if they were right!

BTW in Northern Ireland the far right is trying to gain a foothold and told to f-off by the majority of Belfast. But, they are trying for sure :(

BTW in Northern Ireland the far right is trying to gain a foothold and told to f-off by the majority of Belfast

The far right is already the largest political party in NI.

http://www.cityam.com/290280/britain-has­-rejected-nationalist-populism-plagues-m­uch

This article is a mess. That it is was penned by the Ed. of city AM is even more worrying.

City Am articles are just filler text to fit around the adverts aren't they? I find it hard to believe that there's much content to that article. I wouldn't be surprised if it was 90% written by a bot.

Maybe - the headline is out of whack with the content which is fairly common as they're usually written by subs (see more or less any Guardian article). I was more interested in some of the stats it cites about leave voter make up as I've already said. That research doesn't look to be so easily dismissed.

Incidentally, I get sent cityAm headlines every day (work related). Always struck me as decidedly remain leaning (as is most of the City for fairly obvious reasons.).

I think the more interesting stuff is on the website linked above - needless to say a few hundred words on cityAM isn't ever going to be the final word on anything!

Indeed, the respected British Social Attitudes survey reveals that Brits are more positive about immigrants than at any time since 2011, with pro-immigrant sentiment actually rising since the Brexit vote. Just 17 per cent say immigrants have a negative impact on the economy and only 23 per cent are critical of the cultural impact of immigration.

He might have a look at the analysis that shows that newspaper front pages leading on stories about immigration (almost entirely negative) are down by about 75% since the referendum.

I was more interested in some of the stats it cites about leave voter make up as I've already said. That research doesn't look to be so easily dismissed.

Do you mean the stats in the study or the stats cited at the end of the article? The later I find a bit unremarkable. If it's those you mean, why are they interesting? The former I haven't really digested.

If I understand things correctly, Brexit voters together are made up of at least 4 different groups:

1. Far right types motivated by anti Islamic sentiments
   
2. Wealthy aristocratic types (and aspirational aristocrats) wanting to take the U.K. back to feudalism, concentrating power
   
3. Retirees who are no longer in the economy and don’t need to think about their future income
   
4. The disenfranchised non-Londoners who have few skills and are at greatest risk from freedom of movement.
   
   

Did I miss anyone? Which ones are really motivated by racism?

I wouldn't go as far to say the DUP as far right, but I never see them stand up for immigration rights or on anti racism rallies or oppose the Tories on anti immigrants rules or do anything for EU citizen rights after Brexit.

DUP = selling out NI to the Tories.

1 directly, in theory you can be anti-islam and not racist, but in practise the overlap seems very small
2 not directly but usually utterly blinded by privilege and some will be xenophobic (furrins know your place!)
some of 3 (again maybe not directly they are just being scared to believe the UK will be overrun by imaginary hordes).

Racism is rarely overt, so the stereotype of open racists (maybe 10%) does not further discussion much, as there are many more that "want control" and are sorta ok with the hostile environment, as they still vote Tory. The result is the same.

1. Lexit voters that disagree (rightly) with some stuff the EU has done and think Brexit will deliver a socialist utopia in the UK
   

A Brexit 'unicorn' metaphor

From your groups, I'd say at least the ones in group one.

I'd also add a fifth group, which you left out, to answer your question,

#5. People who won't identify themselves as racists, but want to see less foreigners in the country (because they are the primary cause of any number of issues).

I know these people exist, I've met them.

Agreed. Group 4 is two or three separate groups, left, right and don’t care. Arguably Lexit voters are also about taking back control too. It was smart of Leave to use this construct to bind these very different groups together. Likewise “going against the will of the people”

My guess is that group 3 is the easiest to turn away from Brexit.
But group 4 (left, middle, right) want jobs, good schools, decent hospitals.

The rich will have to contribute and pensioners will have to lose their ridiculous triple lock guarantees and other bribes which have kept them voting Tory. But this cannot be a left only or a right only solution. The country needs a new social contract.

The stats at the end or the article I take to come from Prof Goodwin - the others are from the British Social Attitudes Survey as I understand it. They are interesting to me because they don't appear to fit with the 'leave voter=racist c**t' narrative (as I've already said).

They would appear to show the above narrative is just lazy misinterpretation - I haven't seen any statistical evidence to support it - only anecdotal 'My nan voted leave and she hates insert ethnic minority' type stuff but then I haven't really looked.

How can the problem be solved together when they repeatedly, unthinkingly vote for their antagonists?

Stats please?

Even in Cameron's second term the Tories haven't had anything like the majority Blair-Brown had.

What is the evidence showing that the poorest in society consistently vote Conservative?

The ref had greater voter engagement than any recent GE. Part of that is it was an opportunity where their vote would count.

There were lots of reasons people voted out.

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02023/full#h5

^ not all leavers, but leave voting is correlated with xenophobia and feeling "special" just by being born somewhere

Attitudes towards immigrants have shifted, perhaps because of all the positive press of "hey these are people and they work in the NHS" after the referendum result.

I probably don't understand, because it sounds like you are saying being a member of one of the groups mentioned (ethnic, women, 25-35 year old etc etc) precludes a person from being a racist.

So yeah I probably don't understand!

Correlation does not imply causation (just to cause mischief!) a fact the researchers allude to (very) briefly - Needless to say I haven't had time to read the entire 8000 word study!!

the fact they get in proves that big chunks of the poorest 90% or 99% vote Tory.

I don't think this proves what you think it does.

The Conservatives only got 42% of the total vote at the last General Election (the Labour party got 40%, the rest of the vote being split between various independents and smaller parties).

For your assumption to be true, you'll have to show that 40-odd percent of the electorate is in poverty, and that virtually none of them voted for Labour.

The Tories are not that popular. They never have been. They just do a very good job of not splitting the vote.

^ and a consistently better job of getting a bigger proportion their voters out on the day than other parties

Correct, but it is a little better researched than anecdotal evidence. There have been quite a few studies that link anti immigration feelings with Brexit voting.

You asserted earlier that the brexit racist person is a stereotype. That is anecdotal, so is saying all brexiters are racist.

Brexit is also correlated with supporting the death penalty (em, yay??), being older, being male (slightly), being white, authoritarianism and probably reading some newspapers (though maybe the attitudes came before the newspaper choice, rather than the other way around)

Not sure how you would set up a causation study? Though to cause misschief perhaps the xenophobic papers in the UK have done exactly that...input shitty prejudices for 20 years and presto! ;)