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frank9755-
It’s the number of standard deviations from the mean. So he thought it would be +1.3 but was +0.7. So it was worse than he expected and not much better than mean. Michael has done analysis on historic weather to create a bell curve. And probably all other statistical analysis methods available.
@wheels_of_fire perhaps no perfect. But the higher the z value the closer to perfect!
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As @skinny says above...
Very roughly Gethin's day was a z-value of +1.8, which you would expect to turn up every 25/30 days. Which shows why this is a silly game to get into!
One whole z-value is about 1hr45 difference over the End to End route
skinny
wheels_of_fire
No such thing,
Just need to decide on a z-value that you're happy with.
Ian's was predicted to be about +1.3 but came in at about +0.7 so tougher than he might have expected.