EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

The sound of air slowly escaping from a worn tyre.

This customs union idea sounds to me like the only fudge that lets everyone feel like they’ve gotten something. Everyone is well aware that Norway has all the obligations but none of the say, so Turkey-plus might be the only option that is meaningfully different without necessarily being utterly cataclysmic.

I also think that financial services passporting is not high on Corbyn’s list of things he cares deeply about - a weaker financial sector might suit him just fine.

Remind me again how much of our economy is financial services?

Yeah I know - but if he can weaken the financial services industry while blaming it on Brexit, wouldn't that be basically a coup for Corbynomics?

Am not saying this because I support it, I’m just thinking aloud really.

Edit: exhibit A
https://labour.org.uk/press/will-make-finance-servants-industry-jeremy-corbyn/

For forty years, deregulated finance has progressively become more powerful. Its dominance over industry, obvious and destructive; its control of politics, pernicious and undemocratic.

The size and power of finance created a generation of politicians who thought the City of London could power the whole economy. Out of control financial wizardry and gambling were left barely regulated, while the real economies in once strong industrial areas were put into managed decline. The welfare state was left to pick up the slack with sticking plaster redistribution to the people and places held back by the finance-led boom in the South East of England.

For a generation, instead of finance serving industry, politicians have served finance. We’ve seen where that ends: the productive economy, our public services and people’s lives being held hostage by a small number of too big to fail banks and casino financial institutions.

No more. The next Labour Government will be the first in 40 years to stand up for the real economy. We will take decisive action to make finance the servant of industry not the masters of us all.

A weaker economy means less money in tax, which means less to pay for the NHS etc.

It does none of us any favours, ultimately - or, rather, it does society as a whole no favours of which we are all a member, which many seem to forget.

I agree with what you’re saying, I’m just trying to guess at what Corbyn might be thinking.

EU27 has been pretty clear that a customs union wouldn’t cover services. Maybe they might give some ground, but I’m guessing we’ll lose passporting, which will be portrayed as collateral damage.

They've been crystal clear on cakism being impossible, so no matter what combination of things we say we'll accept ("a" customs union rather than "the" customs union, etc etc) if we don't keep the four freedoms then services are done.

Yes. All I’m suggesting is that Corbyn may be ‘intensely relaxed’ about that outcome, to channel Mandelson.

True, however can the all Ireland economy continue to operate as-per the GFA without SM+CU?

Not.

There are camera systems between Norway and Sweden. That's EU and non EU.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/05/11/anpr_for_uk_ireland_scotland_boarders/

Customs union only means much stricter checks. And even anpr is probably not going to work as well for Ireland.

http://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/is-norway-in-the-customs-union/

This is useful:

https://twitter.com/GuitarMoog/status/967837400327163906

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-43188980

DUP inviting Priti Patel to speak at an event. WTF are they doing inviting this mega pro-brexit character, who got kicked out for lying about Isreal visits and lied to immigrants from outside the EU about post-Brexit immigration?

Yep good one.

Very depressing seeing Frank Field on the Sunday Politics with his JRM light position.

He was positively gleeful about how easily TM will win the vote on the customs union and anything other than the hardest of hard Brexit would be a betrayal.

Which means no withdrawal agreement.

"Labour would seek a final deal that gives full access to European markets and maintains the benefits of the single market and the customs union... with no new impediments to trade and no reduction in rights, standards and protections," he said."

Is this cakism or norway? And norway is what we have now except no seat at the table, right?

"We have long argued that a customs union is a viable option for the final deal. So Labour would seek to negotiate a new comprehensive UK-EU customs union to ensure that there are no tariffs with Europe and to help avoid any need for a hard border in Northern Ireland."

Wait that's cake, right?

not if we stay in the single market and accept FOM. Then we basically have what we have now, including payments to the EU, but no say in decision making.

Wait that's cake, right?

Without FoM, yes. Or, as M Barnier would put it, cherry-picking.

Cake with cherry (picking) :/

The cake point re: Labour (being made by a lot of people) is fine, and Andy's response gets to the point, as I see it. That is, it's a perspective issue. For both the Tories and, potentially, Labour, a customs union is the line in the sand as to where they are willing to go. However, for the Tories, that line is that there will be no accepting of one, and for Labour (again, potentially), that line is that there needs to one. Thus, for the Tories, the benefits of a customs union (and everything else) are unattainable from the EU's perspective. For Labour, further entanglement with the EU may be necessary to allow for/maintain a customs union. That is to say, the Tories have locked themselves into a position in which no cake is possible. Labour, through a customs union red-line, allows for some cake, but it may well require further concessions. Which, if you're a "remainer," is a good thing.

good post

I don't think that the EU will give Labour a special customs deal, and Labour talks about "a" customs union as if they will get something special.

But you are right that at least there is a small possibility it can happen via further concessions.

Single market with no FOM is a total no-no though from the EU POV.

Which, if you're a "remainer," is a good thing.

I'm not sure. As a remainer I'm coming round to this being either a full on 'in' or a full on 'out'. Anything in the middle seems like a fudge that leaves us weaker than when where we started. What's the point? At least with the full on 'out' you get 'change', as brutal as it may be.

Is Corbyn actually saying 'remain by stealth'?

Vote Labour, get some cake.

I'm in