In the news

It's always nice to hear things like that, but unfortunately information about population-level statistics usually only sways people in rather indirect ways. There have been gazillions of studies about the health benefits of cycling/regular exercise but none of them have had much effect.

I have spoken to several colleagues...

One may get back to cycle (her bike weight a tonne...but she'll get lighter tyres which should help a lot)
One is just too lazy (and he admits this) even though he's close to a fine route to work
Several have school runs (impossible to cycle ones...Belfast network is really hit and miss)
And two tried to cycle and nearly got knocked down (parked cars in the cycle zone)

So, what can one do...
...despite all this, the Belfast Bikes (rental bikes) and increased cycle lanes do mean I see a lot more cyclists. Change the environment and all that, easy and cheap biek access, better routes and things happen :)

The rental bikes are relatively useless given the small area in which the docking stations are (or were, it's been a few months since I've been over there).

I really wish they'd not use quotes such as this:

"Over the course of the study, the 263,450 subjects who were under review had a 41 per cent lower chance of death than those who didn’t."

Are bicycles the secret to immortality?

Yeah but journalism, innit. There's a link to the original paper in the article.

Up yer bum, Lumley...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/aug/14/london-garden-bridge-project-scrapped-sadiq-khan

population-level statistics

Not sure what you mean, general life choices and what we feel is 'knowledge' is based on such statistics ie don't smoke, wear your safety belt etc. These types of population studies can and should influence politics towards (in this case) a less car-oriented infrastructure for instance.

There have been gazillions of studies
Citation is needed

Not perse, as the buses are pretty shite. They only take certain routes, on the bikes you can cut across the city centre :)

They have been expanding them, there's a few docks all over Belfast now.

Unfortunately the local hoods have vandalized quite a few, so they may have to go up in price.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/gallery/2017/aug/12/flares-and-fury-the-battle-of-lewisham-1977

Not the news but interesting photos, hard to recognise some streets. Also mentions that it was the first time riot shields were used on the mainland, but not a truncheon in sight?

"I fought in the last war against fascism and this kind of thing is not on for me"

Isn't there a bit of a cause vs correlation issue with this?

“Cycle commuters had a 52 per cent lower risk of dying from heart disease and a 40 per cent lower risk of dying from cancer. They also had 46 per cent lower risk of developing heart disease and a 45 per cent lower risk of developing cancer at all,” the study’s authors wrote.

Just let those numbers soak in a bit. They truly are significant. If a pharmaceutical company created a pill that could reduce your chance of dying by almost half, with particular success against those stubborn scourges of humanity of cancer and heart disease, it would be heralded as a wonder drug. Luckily, this pill is already hanging from the rafters of your garage.

Just had a look at the Belfast Bikes site and the locations are a lot more spread out than I recalled! Last time I checked they went no further West than Royal Avenue and no further East than the Odyssey (though it seems that the East-West range is also a lot smaller than the North-South range).

Not surprising about the vandalism unfortunately. I had to explain to my wife that not only do the bus stops not have electronic notice boards to say when the next bus is due, but they don't even have a paper timetable due to vandalism...

IIRC, the various Scandinavian studies have always been hesitant to claim cause/effect, and instead talks of finding a link.

This Swdish one for example:
" Researchers noted no minimum distance or time requirement, but they were clear that the results were observational. There is no strict cause-and-effect relationship between commuter biking and cardiovascular health. "

There's also a huge Danish one, but struggle to find it right now.

You'd think an editor would sort that out though surely.

Or at least expect a journalist to be able to fashion a sentence that actually has some meaning.

It does seem to be a common trait when reporting studies concerning health risks.

Yeah the writing is shoddy in that article but what else is new. Causation is always hard and bias everywhere etc but the current evidence (such as it is) is fairly uniform in suggesting a link between exercise and less risk of cancer & cardiovascular disease.

Oh, that's strange as the one near my road does have a paper timetable. It depends on the area maybe?

The Belfast city centre ones tend to have electronic timetables (which don't fix the famous "no bus, then 3 at once" issue) the ones that aren't pink/white (metro) usually don't.

There's bike polo on Sundays these days and various cycling groups, so if you want to meet people socially when over, feel free to send a PM.

Are bicycles the secret to immortality?

The author responded to this exact criticism in the comments, saying that the reduction in chance if death was over the 5 year study, not in perpetuity.

A redraft might be a good idea, but I think the sentence holds up.

Isn't there a bit of a cause vs correlation issue with this?

Again, if I understand you correctly, this was asked in the comments. The actual study paper makes it clear that they controlled for BMI, lifestyle etc to try and remove showing the unastonishing result that healthy people tend to cycle more.

Sad Beigel bake tragedy if you can call it that.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4786178/amp/Tributes-mum-daughter-killed-schizophrenic-son.html

Oh it definitely depends on area, the ones on Malone Road have electronic and paper versions. The ones between Lenadoon & Poleglass definitely do not! Though neither of those come as any great surprise.

I tend to just do a few laps on the MTB around the Mary Peters trails or head up over the Black Mountain when I'm over (heading over there tomorrow until Thursday actually, but don't anticipate much in the way of cycling get togethers mid-week!).

Good to hear polo has taken off there, where do you guys play?

Indeed I hadn't believed that that was the message that the journalist was trying to get across, but the sentence is quite vague.

Reading it back now with that clarification makes a lot more sense. But like you said, might be worth a quick redraft.

I am pretty sure I managed to find the Danish one which always gets quoted in this context. 40 000 participants of which almost 7000 were cyclists.

Lars Bo Andersen, PhD, DMSc; Peter Schnohr, MD; Marianne Schroll, PhD, DMSc; et al

the unastonishing result that healthy people tend to cycle more.

Or vice versa - People that cycle more tend to be more healthy - which is why correlation <> causation. Healthy people cycling more may be a confounding factor when yo try to work out if cycling people are more healthy.

https://www.facebook.com/groups/121842025077879/ :)

I don't have a suitable bike atm, have to see if I can adjust something.

Not sure what you mean, general life choices and what we feel is 'knowledge' is based on such statistics ie don't smoke, wear your safety belt etc. These types of population studies can and should influence politics towards (in this case) a less car-oriented infrastructure for instance.

I should have said (and meant) in respect of cycling. I don't know how it works with these other areas, although I don't think that seat belts are a good example given that there is legislation enforcing their use. There, progress went evidence->policy->law, which is really how it should go, providing the evidence is any good (and the evidence in favour of seat belts has been criticised very strongly by John Adams at least). However, you can't force people to cycle by law, so that progression doesn't work. It's left to individual choice and the extent to which individuals are capable of making decisions on the basis of complex/abstract evidence in the face of other, more powerful influences. I've read dozens of studies on the health benefits of cycling, I know plenty of people who work in the field of public health, etc., and in my experience the actual impact of this (important) work on cycling is negligible. I have various views on why that is, but they take a while to explain.