General Election June 2017

October 1974

ITN: Wrong by 12

BBC: Wrong by 132

1979

ITN: Wrong by 20

BBC: Wrong by 29

1983

ITN: Wrong by 28

BBC: Wrong by 2

1987

ITN: Wrong by 34

BBC: Wrong by 76

1992

ITN: Wrong by 62

BBC: Wrong by 70

1997

ITN: Wrong by 20

BBC: Wrong by 6

But in the last decade and a half the exit polls have become much more accurate.

Here are the figures for 2001.

ITN: Wrong by 8

BBC: Wrong by 10

From 2005 onwards there has been a joint exit poll, firstly commissioned for ITN and the BBC, and then, from 2010 onwards, for Sky too. Its record has been much better.

2005

Wrong by 0. It predicted a Labour majority of 66, which Labour got.

2010

Wrong by 0. It said the Tories would be 19 short of a majority, and they were.

2015

Wrong by 22. It said the Tories would be 10 seats short of a majority, but they got a majority of 12.

Well clearly I read that wrong!

edit it was the Telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/08/general-election-exit-poll-accurate-could/

Am in Italy, and a little homesick watching minute-by-minute footage of provincial UK leisure centres on RaiNews24...

Osbourne shafting May on ITV - hilarious.

That's impressive accuracy. I'm a bit ashamed I didn't know just how good they are (or were, but let's hope are).

No love lost there

Oz bot shafting May bot = non electric dreams

Good turnout it seems.
The youth?
the Corbyn/grandad factor

Good god life will be better if Amber Rudd gets the fuckoff

In related news I'm going to ask for my salary to be paid in Euro, fixed at todays exchange rate.

You might have just made an Etap got confirmed?

The reshuffle will be hilarious as the media has failed to cover true resentments in the tory front benches

although Gove may be allowed to come off the naughty step

https://twitter.com/Emmabarnett/status/872945482775003137

Boris is nihilist.

Patel is rubbish here. Why has she bothered?

Priti Patel doing a good Maybot v2 on BBC..Can't watch anymore.

sunderland - labour

again tory vote seems underestimate / explanation is strong tory postal vote not accounted for

I'm going to eat a crisp every time someone makes themselves clear. I started worrying about my stamina when they brought Patel on

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ model (scroll down) has been pretty bloody good so far

Labour actually generally doing slightly better than the YouGov model at the moment..

I enjoyed my blissful half hour from 10-10.30, bouncing off the walls and texting everyone. Now it's nail-biting stuff

Wish I had crisps.

I had popcorn. Lasted about 10 mins, but luckily I get to spend the next 8 hours busy picking it out my teeth and gums

Swindish bastards. 4-1

tory hold swindon north - exit poll seemed overestimate

labour hold newcastle east - exit poll seemed underestimate

seems close enough to the exit poll to justify staying up all night

But swing to Labour better than exit poll prediction.

Veeeeerrrry interesting.