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e.g. about right now.
Let's call it a 20% currency drop and a 10% increase in oil price since the referendum. I'd say that a hike is imminent.
jaw-
I'd agree that it's likely to happen soon.
As well as OPEC agreeing on a strategy and maybe pulling the Russians in, we're coming out of refinery turnaround season which usually results in an uptick in crude demand and hence prices (mixed for products prices though as petrol/diesel etc production picks up when the refineries are back online).
Add the devaluation into that and you have refiners coming back into the market with much higher costs in GBP terms, so yes, autumn hikes seem quite likely to me.
h2o
A margin is paid on purchase and the balance settled at expiry. Very few futures contracts are ever delivered - they're a hedging instrument.
OTC forwards =\= exchange-traded futures.
Oil exposure is generally hedged forward in the futures market (the exchange-traded stuff) but the physical supply is bought more promptly in the OTC market.
Retail prices can sometimes react very quickly to prices in the physical wholesale market, but because most exposure is hedged way in advance, retailers can and often do choose to delay the price hikes until their hedges run out, which may take a few months.