EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

When will we get tired of that joke?

I've not found any with the breakdowns around. You can get them per constituency I think if you dig about.

My current assumptions are based on turnout in the age brackets not changing (i.e older voters more likely to turn out still) but the % split of the vote staying the same (so an 18 year old now in 75% likely to vote in, that % will stay despite their age changing)

I'm sure there's more data to improve the model later, and I should stick it into R, but at the moment, I'm just playing with Google Sheets.

So it's likely that BoJo or May will press the button when they get in. Is there any chance that when Corbyn does one, the new leader will ride in on a wave of pro Euro-ness and get a general election going before article 50 gets triggered?

1 Raheem to 2 Phil Stamps soon

No

Not yet

Whoever gets in could say "we shall leave the article 50 notice to the winner of the general election", breathing a sigh of relief that they have (potentially) a stay of execution, and then if the other team gets in (although vide the current debacle of the PLP, this may be unlikely) they could state that it's against their principles. Dunno how that plays into the "majority of the people have voted" aspect, but if you campaigned on remain that would add legitimacy.

Are you looking at me, because I have brought my suit just in case...

Oh. I'll go back to watching the football then.

Also got my boots

The FTSE 250 closed at 6.96% down. I make that 13.6% since the market opened on Friday. Pretty stable then...

Results were announced by local authority, which is different to a parliamentary constituency. They're not far off but they are different, as this map shows.

Given that the referendum is only advisory, a winner of a general election who had specifically campaigned on a platform of staying in would be well within their rights to ignore it.

And any government after that would have to think about putting it to a referendum again, as the legitimacy of this one would have run its course. Hence to an extent the number crunching that I'm trying to do to see how long this can be counted as legitimate for...

You get my vote.

Excellent, you can have Yorkshire after I become the Grand Leader.

Barclays will hit a five year low by tomorrow. Will the Qatari government print more petrodollars to prop it up?

Do you think something more disappointing than the referendum result will help?

You also get my vote, but only if I can haz Silly Isle after you become king

270 voting areas voted leave with 129 voting to remain.

I'm only happy when wallowing in misery and self pity.

They can't ignore it, they would have to reject it as demonstrative of a need for change in the country that doesn't necessitate departure from the EU. Once the Tories have managed to appoint a new Grand Wizard and Labour has resolved it's internecine shit-heeling then I suspect that there's going to be loads of shiny suited campaigning death squads going out to the proley sink estates to find out what the typical disaffected Leavewanker actually want out of government. They'll then beat a hasty retreat back to Whitehall to make up some shit while banging their heads against desks in an attempt to shake the pony fantasies of the provincial knuckledraggers.

You make a good point about the diminishing legitimacy of the current referendum though. Mind you don't rely on the fickle teenage vote as rock solid Remain.

And yet there was only 1.3M votes in it.

Would you think that in a second referendum, with the now known impact which by all means is only the start of it, a second out vote is secure?

You can but I need to stat taking notes on this

I did a half-hearted calculation in my head and came up with about two years before enough elderly 'Brixteers' have passed away for Remain to creep ahead. It then occurred to me that it might be on the exact day we officialy leave the EU that the majority finally want to stay.