• I was initially pessimistic looking at the those graphs but the thing that swung it round for me was looking at Steve's original start last time. By the time of his accident (almost 3 months in) he was ~2700 miles ahead of Tommy's pace and hadn't buried himself. I think he'll be pretty steady over the winter and start the new year a maximum of 500 miles behind Tommy, possibly even ahead (he has a much flatter graph for the colder months than Tommy) if the weather is kind.

    Also, click the 'schedules' radio button on the graphing and see that in Steve's original attempt he was tracking his upper goal quite well, if he'd been able to keep to this he would have added 12000 miles to the record.

    So, as far as my predictions, first Kurt will surpass it by ~1000 miles and be the new record holder.

    Steve will be at most 500 to 0 miles behind at the end of the year (compared to if Tommy had started on the same date) and then proceed to smash it for the rest of his 'year' and add at least 6000 miles to the record and then be the new HAMR record holder.

    There will then be lots of bollocks about Steve's restarted attempt not being a 'real' year attempt as he didn't start on Jan 1st and finish on Dec 31st, but unless Kurt piles on the miles soon he'll have a similar problem as missed a bunch of days as he didn't start until Jan 10th.

    2016 is a leap year but the record is for 365 consecutive days, so he doesn't get a free day compared to everyone else.

  • There will then be lots of bollocks about Steve's restarted attempt not being a 'real' year attempt as he didn't start on Jan 1st and finish on Dec 31st, but unless Kurt piles on the miles soon he'll have a similar problem as missed a bunch of days as he didn't start until Jan 10th.

    2016 is a leap year but the record is for 365 consecutive days, so he doesn't get a free day compared to everyone else.

    It would, of course, have been nice for his original plan to work, but I think his effort will be considered all the more remarkable because (a) the re-start wasn't his fault, (b) most lesser riders would have packed it in there and then, (c) he was back on the trike/bike rather quickly, and (d) it'll be interesting to see how many miles he ends up doing in total across the two attempts. You never know, perhaps he'll keep riding after that and set completely insane new records over 150,000 miles or more (thinking that he wouldn't get the 100,000 mile record over Tommy Godwin)? Will Kurt Searvogel keep riding at the end of his year? #armchairrider

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