• My 2p worth:
    Tommy godwin proved what was humanly possible way back in 1939.
    Kurt will surpass this, but not by a significant margin.
    Steve won't .
    White rhino in the room shot and tusk sawn off..

  • Bruce should hopefully claim it back for the UK (well, NZ, but he lives here) next year.

  • I certainly wouldn't have any issue with it if he was but dya think Godwin was in some way supplementing himself? Amphetamines, brandy etc? Clearly he had an extraordinary physique and metabolism and one which has proved in some ways timeless.

  • I was initially pessimistic looking at the those graphs but the thing that swung it round for me was looking at Steve's original start last time. By the time of his accident (almost 3 months in) he was ~2700 miles ahead of Tommy's pace and hadn't buried himself. I think he'll be pretty steady over the winter and start the new year a maximum of 500 miles behind Tommy, possibly even ahead (he has a much flatter graph for the colder months than Tommy) if the weather is kind.

    Also, click the 'schedules' radio button on the graphing and see that in Steve's original attempt he was tracking his upper goal quite well, if he'd been able to keep to this he would have added 12000 miles to the record.

    So, as far as my predictions, first Kurt will surpass it by ~1000 miles and be the new record holder.

    Steve will be at most 500 to 0 miles behind at the end of the year (compared to if Tommy had started on the same date) and then proceed to smash it for the rest of his 'year' and add at least 6000 miles to the record and then be the new HAMR record holder.

    There will then be lots of bollocks about Steve's restarted attempt not being a 'real' year attempt as he didn't start on Jan 1st and finish on Dec 31st, but unless Kurt piles on the miles soon he'll have a similar problem as missed a bunch of days as he didn't start until Jan 10th.

    2016 is a leap year but the record is for 365 consecutive days, so he doesn't get a free day compared to everyone else.

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