Yearly Distance Record Attempt (Tommy Godwin - 75,065mi/120,000k)

It's interesting if you start plotting both of their daily averages and how they are evolving over time, highlights the difference in approach probably caused by the weather.

If you do a simple linear regression on the daily average, you get the equations;

Steve: y = 0.1071x + 167.71
Kurt: y = 0.0164x + 201.03

So basically Kurt has maintained his average daily miles from the start where as Steve is increasing his my 0.1 miles a day. if they were both to continue at current rates then Kurt would end up beating Steve by 70 miles!

However I think you can justifiably remove the first two weeks of the time period for both of them as the averages haven't really settled down by that point, this gives subtlety different equations;

Steve: y = 0.1153x + 182.31
Kurt: y = 0.0519x + 199.24

Again Kurt pretty much flat but Steve improving day by day. This analysis actually shows Steve beating Kurt by 2,258 miles.

I realise this is all pointless, but i'm bored...

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I like this post

Life is pointless, but I'm entertained, thanks.

The joy of a bored econometrician...

Is there any chance you could stick Adam Hill on those graphs?

#rep+1 for @Sam_w

Whats quite (I stretch the term quite) interesting is that Kurts average seems to be following a log trend where as Steve is following either an exponential or polynomial (order 2 or 3) trend, if that continues then there really is only one winner...

Hell, that's just the kind of stuff that I'm looking to run into/get out of my spreadsheet.

I think that I may need to break it up a little more first though, as it's getting to be a bit unwieldy for just perusing.

Tidying tonight here I come.

I could spend days playing with this data...

I suspect that what may be quite interesting is trying to model their progress using Poisson shapes, I think that Steve may be following a higher order Poisson shape, so starting slower having a period of fast growth in the middle then slowing again near the end, whereas Kurt is following a lower order Poisson and will hit his peak very early on...

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^ Yeah - Steve's not going to carry on increasing. He'll peak then slow down again as weather / light is against him. I guess Kurt will be more stable.

looks forward to digging out the wife's mathematical modelling books later

Kurt has it planned:

My goal is to start out riding 10 hours a day the first week on my long rides and then add 10 minutes to the time ridden each week as I get more daylight and better weather. I plan to increase my time on the bike to 14-15 hours during the summer and then taper it back down to about 10 hours a day by the end of 2015. My speed goal for riding is to start out riding my long days at about 17 mph which, for me, is actually a little slow. As my fitness improves, my average speed will get better and by mid year I should be riding at around 20 mph or better and should be able to hold that fitness level for the rest of the year.

http://www.tarzanrides.com/the-riding-plan.php

@Sam_w 2 questions; is Kurt following the plan? Knowing the plan and what he is already doing can you estimate his total?

I read somewhere that Steve is going to up his miles during the summer and put in some big days.

Yes - but would he be able to keep that pace up on a 10-miler in Hertfordshire?

#AdamDay

I read somewhere that Steve is going to up his miles during the summer and put in some big days.

This was the Godwin way. Starting around 150 miles a day, reaching around 300 mid-summer and dropping back down after that.

My speed goal for riding is to start out riding my long days at about 17 mph

That's me out of the 10 miler then.

A 500m balls out decent? With no corners? I'd take you all you fuckers on.

As long as I got a lift to the top.

Both of their plans are in my spreadsheet, along with how they are doing vs them.

Steve's plans are a lot simpler in what he has released, Kurt's have a lot more complexity in them.

http://goo.gl/RBHtiS has all three plans, and some details of how they are doing against them. Having more data in the sheet, I may go back and rework Kurt's, as he gave things like target mph and time riding, which I ignored when I did it initially.

Kurt had also planned to have rest days, where he 'only' rides ~100 miles, which he's largely not been taking, I think due to the perceived pressure of Steve riding every day.

can't google drive at work. meh

Interesting stats and the like. I feel like we are all waiting for the first monster triple century ride from Steve. It will be interesting to see how KS responds.

Still no explanation for the lack of a ride yesterday from KS. He's back up and running today though according to trackleaders. Anyone see if he actually rode yesterday?

he did ride, he had issues before with his garmin not playing nicely, so I hope its not that again...

I feel like they should have some "lives" when it comes to uploading on the day. A couple of let offs for late uploads. Gotta be a challenge in itself to keep all the tech working perfectly for a whole year! Be a shame to miss out on 200 miles because your Garmin had a hissy fit. Pretty sure Tommy didn't have one...

He had a Garmin Forerunner.

Nice. I see what you did there.

I think the rules does have exceptions for none functioning Garmins etc.

It was something along the lines of get something signed in each place you pass through and you'll be credited for the shortest distance between them

Ah yes, rules 11&12 - http://ultracycling.com/sections/records/max-mileage.php

If both/either tracker and GPS data fails, the distance credited will be the shortest distance via cycleable road between locations documented in the witness book.

In the case of communication failure where either/both of the live tracker or trip recorder data is unavailable, the rider shall send an explanation (email or text message preferred) as soon as possible to the Records Chairman. The mileage involved shall be considered to be provisional until the Records Chairman can decide on the validity of the explanation.