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Uran?

Roglic not going for GC, week long races and stages only. Considering he's got three week long races so far this season, i reckon he'll add to his TDF stage haul this year.

Aergroad?

Lots of riders DNF'd on the last day, an early Cat 1 meant half the field was out the back, and if the team didn't think it was worth it, then there's no point in hauling yourself over two more climbs.

His position as road captain and also ability for the cobbled stage means I'm 99% sure he goes, fairly sure he was at the TDF team training camp on Mount Tede too.

This

The operative word here is "bought" hahaa, not too much managing to be done when you can tell him he's had all the opportunities he's wanted in the classics and has also won Algarve and Tirreno this year.

Sky always take two Roleur/Cobbles type guys for the early stage KM's. Though the teams are reduced to 8, with
the inclusion of the cobbled stage, I reckon they still take 2. Rowe definitely goes - he's road captain. Really I think it's between Castroviejo and Van Barrle.

Ellisonde has only ridden 1 GT the last two seasons. Back to back ones with a very tough Giro behind him would be a shock

Not sure Ellisonde goes after the Giro.

Not sure Poels does either. He's wanted a crack at a GC, offering the Vuelta up to him makes sense. I reckon:

Froome
Thomas
Bernal
Tao
Kwiat
Moscow
Rowe
Stannard/Van Barrle/Castroviego (think Castroviego nudges it thanks to the TTT)

https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/320916/#comment14239753 :)

edit: previous message was a bit full on, but still, all I've done is admit my hypothesis might be wrong, if I wanted to be a bit of a stooge, I could say that I was utilising data from a given year with the same amount of riders in the field, and to accurately compare data when sample sizes are the same, I'd need to wait till the end of September this year.

Fair enough.... only 27, on what was pretty much agreed to be a much tougher Giro.

Maybe not the best metric to use then, but I maintain, the Tour is generally the best introduction for a young pro, and with this years leaked route I'd say it'd still be the best for Bernal

This is more what I mean I think @andyp

With an easier route, there's less chance of absolutely exploding and hurting yourself physically, Pinot put himself in hospital during the Giro, and I can think of more riders "exploding" in the Vuelta and Giro than the Tour.

If he is in a domestique deluxe role too, he won't be needed on the flat days and can role in 20 minutes behind the peloton if needed with much less exertion. In the Vuelta say, it's still a tough day in the saddle just to get to the finish line.

Maybe the easiest way to look at is last years GT's:
Giro x36 DNF
Tour x31 DNF
Vuelta x40 DNF

Just clamping the cages to the forks could do more damage than meets the eye, when the internals are all working with tight tolerances, and then you clamp something on the outers, it could create more friction-wear-safety issues.

I know the DH world cup mechanics are all super careful with all torque settings on the forks, even the "my hands are my torque wrench" ones.

The other thing with the Tour, is in terms of the actual toll on the body, most riders reckon it's the easiest. With the amount of easy transition days that are pancake flat (as opposed to a Giro/Vuelta one with 2000m of climbing still) as well as the increased structure around it, it actually makes it pretty ideal for a first GT if you can cut the mustard.

Tiesj Benoot did his first GT there last year at 23 and finished 20th. And we would all agree that Bernal is a better GC prospect.

Domestique deluxe for Thomas/Froome/maybe even Kwiatkowski.... would make a lot of sense

The main argument would be that the pro is meant to already be at their ideal weight or within a few kg of it, and certainly putting out more power if they are on the heavier side of it. See Thomas De Gent as an example: challenged for the Giro, put on weight one winter, tried to lose it and maintain power, couldn't.

Comparing middling club racer to a pro who is meant to be riding for the best team with all its marginal gains, is like comparing apples to bloody beach balls

It is very mamil friendly. You can put hydro's on surely?

Probably a 58cm here, the rider (will clarke) is 6'3" apparently, but a pro, so llikely not a 60cm and looks too big to be a 56cm..

The big one for me is when Yates couldn't follow Wellens, Teuns , Carapaz and the Izagirre brothers at this years Paris Nice, I'm not sure he's quite there yet to go the distance.

.....

Hi All, so, a wheelset up for sale first:

Hope Mono RS with Campag Freehub x Stans Alpha 400 x DT Swiss Competition Spokes x Brass Nipples + KCNC Skewers (one nut is another brand as I lost the original) - £230 posted including PayPal fees

A set of 28h Disc (no brake track) Light Bicycle RRU35C02, UD Matt Finish, No Decals- £335posted including PayPal fees
Brand new, never laced, just looking at getting different rims now

First with money gets it.

Hi All, so, a wheelset up for sale first:

Hope Mono RS with Campag Freehub x Stans Alpha 400 x DT Swiss Competition Spokes x Brass Nipples + KCNC Skewers (one nut is another brand as I lost the original) - £230 posted including PayPal fees

A set of 28h Disc (no brake track) Light Bicycle RRU35C02, UD Matt Finish, No Decals- £335posted including PayPal fees
Brand new, never laced, just looking at getting different rims now

First with money gets it.

Been quietly toiling away, every chance he sneaks into the top 5

For all the Kirby haters out there, another classic:
"Willier are working on the front here, presumably for Mareczko in this group"...

Mareczko DNF'd on stage 9

Still no actually... Dumoulin nearly winning the Vuelta at 24 save for the last day, puts him ahead on this curve.

But the curve is also a little bit warped because Dumoulin can pick up "PCS Points" in time trials much easier than Yates can in classics say (if we're talking about their other disciplines)

I think Dumoulin is the more rounded rider right now, with more experience, but it will certainly be interesting to see how things work with the order of these stages, Matt White has said the team are going to try and pick up seconds all through the race, so it seems they're going to continue attacking all the way to the time trial and beyond, which they'll need to do.

The big one for me is when Yates couldn't follow Wellens, Teuns , Carapaz and the Izagirre brothers at this years Paris Nice, I'm not sure he's quite there yet to go the distance.

Have to be a Thomson? I've got a 3t Dorico Ltd, 350mm long, layback that I want to move on

Agree with all of this, Brian Smith has been a welcome addition but needs a bit more time to get used to speaking on camera etc, and Jonathon Edwards has been a good addition to fill a Claire Balding type presenter role. They've got nothing on Flecha and House though.

I think Dumoulin will take around 2 minutes out of Yates on that TT. Last years was 39.8km vs 34.2km this year, and was certainly lumpier, he beat Nibali, Mollema, Van Emden and Amador all by 2 minutes plus, and whilst Yates' TT has improved this year, I'd argue Dumoulin's looks to as well.

Not sure it'll be enough though, with stages 15, 19 and 20, Mitchelton can send Yates or Chaves up the road and seriously isolate Dumoulin

TRP make some.

With all of Cannondale's "system intergration" thing, I don't know why they don't try and intergrate the brakes into the fork/frame. May well be one of those things that would look very cool and aero, but probably not actually do that much