Search results for:

Also

• to the point about getting voucher in advance, I think they tend to have an expiry date but it is not something they have ever enforced in my experience, and when I have had a long wait before using the voucher I just had to contact the scheme provider at the expiry date to ask them to extend it due to long lead time on a bike I was buying, as the shop would not accept the voucher until bike was in stock ready to build and deliver
  

I’ve been in company schemes that only opened once a year, and if you missed the deadline you had to wait another 12 months, so would be worth confirming with employer if that is the nature of this scheme or if maybe it has a cutoff date for applications on each new month (to align with payroll admin etc in that month). I always took the approach to get a voucher that was either at the limit, or based on a specific bike I knew I would buy +£x and then spending surplus on accessories and clothing (I usually end up with tubes, tyres , bags, bottles, cages, cycle computers etc) to make up to voucher total or within a few pence of it

Yes exactly - elevated PSA and enlarged prostate can both be attributable to other non-cancer related causes, leaving biopsy as current standard of care for confirmatory testing, which is in itself inherently risky to perform, and the new study aims to compare it to newer diagnostic tools like fast MRI etc

Obviously recognise age and family history would place me in a high risk group but would prefer to hedge my bets on seeing the outcome of the soon to start TRANSFORM study comparing risk benefit of a number of existing and new diagnostic and treatment options. Should be 3 years until they get the results from the first patient cohort of 12500 men in UK, then another 300000 men into next cohort but first results of that probably a decade away or so I think

I’m in early 50s and have been thinking about the prostate test, but what puts me off is that there is presumably some rationale behind the absence of a national screening program, in that the risks of over-diagnosis and over-treatment may outweigh (at a population level) the benefits of earlier detection of those cancers which would actually proceed to be harmful. My dad got diagnosed a couple of years ago at 78 when by chance had a PSA test which was significantly elevated, followed by digital exam, followed by biopsy, which confirmed malignant tumour, and after hormone treatment and a month of radiotherapy he recently got the all clear.

Have not watched the video but I don’t think anyone should necessarily infer too much about the broader market from the perspective of buffets historically high amount of cash. He is defined by the value investing approach, buying undervalued and selling overvalued stocks - I think his recent actions are mainly a consequence of certain holdings like Apple meeting his selling criteria (and the amount of cash on hand is a consequence of how successful those investments have been, rather than him wanting to hold a specific amount of cash), i am sure he will be looking for where to invest that money next, as far as I am aware he is not known as someone that tries to time the market. I believe that he (or Berkshire Hathaway) still holds a very large amount of stocks that continue to meet his criteria as value investments and which would be expected to weather any volatility or uncertainty in the short to medium term (like a lot of the S&P500 outside of the mega cap tech stocks)

Yes agreed but I suppose I was thinking about how the indirect implications of your plan might look, in that by placing the money in that non-taxable environment for your benefit and in excess of the benefit which the law entitles you to as an individual, you are avoiding the alternative which would be to place the money in an investment which would potentially be subject to tax hence why HMRC could view it as improper

I suppose it’s not easy to extrapolate the HMRC £100 interest rule to PBs held in child’s name, and I think HMRC approach would be based more on core principles that money held in a Child’s account should be solely for Child’s benefit and both the initial investment and any income derived from it should not be subject to being claimed back by the parent at a future date, because if they were than it could have the appearance of intentional tax evasion, i.e. sidestepping the £50K allowance on PBs and their associated benefits that adults are granted.

Sorry you are right I misrepresented that, 38 is the current Shiller PE ratio which smooths out price and earnings over the 10 year period in question and is not the usual 1 year PE ratio.

This site shows 2 charts comparing the PE ratio and Shiller PE ratio over the last hundred years or so
https://www.longtermtrends.net/sp500-price-earnings-shiller-pe-ratio/

Nice, reminds me of Robert Shiller’s P/E based method of forecasting expected future returns from S&P500, but looked at multiple 10 year timeframes and varied it by looking at actual annualised returns over multiple 10y periods from various starting points, this gave me a bit of a nerd-on when I first saw it in his book Irrational Exuberance. If you take todays P/E of 38 for the index, the chart shows that you might reasonably expect (based on historical performance) a return of 0% over the next 10 years from an S&P based tracker. Note the image included here indicates current PE as 31 which it was in December 2023 when that chart was last updated, and does not take into account the significant growth this year driven by a very small number of mega cap tech stocks rather than participation in the rise by the broader index . So although it is generally advised to not try and time the market, there are some valid considerations about whether lump
Sum Investments into index tracker funds are a good idea at specific points in time

Ok so verbatim from their financial advisers response that was shared to me (and I would note that this was for an investor that may have expressed a preference for return of their capital rather than return on their capital) but nonetheless my opinion on it is that 1) the forecast returns are probably realistic for long term and vehicles that suggest consistently delivering more than that are maybe not everything they seem and 2) that’s a hell of a fee burden both for the octopus scheme and the ifa initial and ongoing costs.

“We discussed the option of using Business Relief as a diversifier to what you already hold directly. I highlighted the Octopus proposition as a potential alternative and I have attached some information about this scheme. The scheme is traditionally used for mitigating IHT but we have been using it more recently as a proxy for capital preservation and modest growth. The target annual growth is 4.2% which nets down to about 3% after Octopus take their fees. The growth rate is not capped but it is unlikely to be significantly higher than 3% over the long term. Another company we use offer a similar strategy but it is less diversified than the Octopus offering, although their target growth rate is higher at around 4.5% net of charges.
As intimated, typically our initial charges range from 1% to 2%, in this instance I can confirm that we would apply an initial charge of 1.5%. Our ongoing charges typically range from 0.5% to 1%, if the total investment was below £500,000 then the ongoing charge would be 0.70%”

Whenever I’ve had to park a lump sum for a while in the past I’ve been lazy and used whatever Martin Lewis is highlighting as best option, ensuring to stay under the 85000GBP FCSC cap with any institution , but with the sums you are talking I guess there’s more incentive to squeeze additional incremental fractions of percent of interest out of it.

From your reference to the ability to park 150K in PBs you obviously have additional adults (or fake IDs) that you are able to use allowances for, so maybe pushing 60K each year into cash ISA with best rates is one part of tax minimisation strategy.

I know someone who had a conversation with a wealth management company about handling a similar sum so I’ll see what advice they got if they are happy to share

Well it was making sense to me until you said it out loud like that…

In the spirit of diversification I do buy a euro millions ticket every Friday.

But anyway I certainly don’t recommend this approach, I have tried to learn how to handle the spikes and drops over the last 20 odd years and generally got better at it (selling more on way up, not feeing decision regret when it continues on up without me on board, and overcoming my fear to buy when there are big drops after the spikes, but really seeing it as practice for an eventual mania type scenario where the biggest gains may be available).

I have begun to diversify and also re-reading the classics on value investing and stock picking which is what might be important in the 2030s (it has not really been in favour for a while with the momentum (and meme) driven investing that has recently dominated, but post crisis may come to be the best strategy).

Has it done ok for me - yes but not brilliantly
Would I have done better with a 60/40 stock bond index tracker managed fund - maybe
If I was not doing this would I have spent the last 20 years chasing hot markets and bubbles and lost money - probably, because I have a tendency to think I am cleverer than I actually am when it comes to markets

So my daughter had a 2021 14” M1 MacBook Pro and shut it when there was a Bobby pin (?) on the keyboard, which cracked a small part of the screen but the whole screen subsequently failed. She has walked away from it with a new M4 model and I am left with the broken one. I connected to a monitor with USB-C and it seems fully functional, have wiped and reset it and seems fine, but cannot be used as a laptop any more. I looked at replacing screen and there are cheaper OEM parts seemingly available on eBay but I have read that there is some kind of special calibration needed which only Apple and their approved repairers are able to do. Would be interested to know if anyone has an idea of how much it might typically cost with Apple to have the screen replaced and if it would be worthwhile, rather than replacing it myself with OEM part or having it continue to be limited to use in a desktop setting with second screen (my preference obviously would be to have it as a laptop if feasible from cost perspective, and use to replace my 2012 MacBook Pro which is still going strong but not been able to receive OS updates for last few years so probably not a good idea to keep using from security perspective).

Main holdings are in Blackrock gold and general fund and Ruffer gold Fund that have a mix of gold related assets (physical and derivatives) and equities (mainly large cap producers), I did buy a few 1kg silver bars 20 years ago when they were very cheap, as I liked the idea of having some physical but they are more of a curiosity than an investment. I try to keep my distance from the doomsday prepper crowd when it comes to things like that. Re: gold ETFs I have always tended to prefer the miners for their significant gearing on gold price increase (but works both ways on the downswings…), and I use interactive investor for investments in junior gold and silver exploration companies mostly on TSX venture exchange which is a wild ride casino type arena that has seen me take more losses than gains with 2022 and 2023 being extremely painful, but ultimately I believe the miners are historically and significantly undervalued relative to the price of gold currently and would hope to see outsized returns on those as reversion to the mean happens for the ratio (as long as that is not driven by decrease in gold price!)

The BTC act, as widely discussed and speculated on as it is, must already be considered to be priced in, and either the failure to pass the act, or the failure to follow through and actually create a ‘strategic BTC reserve’ (because why?…and because US could only fund such a strategy through even more debt) might prove to be the catalyst for the rugpull umder the current price. Politicians obviously say a lot of things to get elected, and this notional strategy might be more “vibes” than coherence

Back to investments and investing, my retirement planning is largely focused on waiting for a bubble as opposed to chasing bubbles that are already inflated and to that end I am mostly invested in gold and precious metal mining related funds and stocks (~50%) with some allocation to natural resource funds (~10%) and emerging markets (~10%) with remainder currently in cash. My hypothesis may or may not be rational or logical but is based on an expectation that historical cycles tying in with the significant debt issues facing developed countries does lead to a general currency crisis impacting trust in conventional investments and driving money into gold. Will not see good returns if I am wrong but happy to give it until the end of the decade to find out. Recognise that I have been negative on crypto vehicles which are to an extent supported by a similar mindset but I do feel that gold has more of a proven and enduring track record than crypto in such conditions (acknowledging it has had several thousand years in which to generate that track record, which crypto has not) and is less likely than BTC to become displaced by a new paradigm or to be subject to a loss of trust. Nothing wrong with bubbles from investment perspective as long as you see them coming early, get in early, recognise it for what it is, and have an exit strategy that is not over-ridden by emotions or suspension of disbelief around the likelihood of it continuing up and up (which is what I perceive to be happening in crypto at the moment)

I had not heard of MSTR before seeing these posts, on reviewing the investor relations page on their website I have no idea what they actually do except buy bitcoin, and honestly the stuff about generating yields from it kind of gives me Ponzi vibes. Note - I am not saying that there is anything improper
about their activities , just that it is impenetrable and opaque for me and that would cause me to give it a big swerve, but good luck to those who understand it better than me. Also, I am unclear how a company with no apparent earnings can have a P/E ratio of 8 (or of anything?) but I am looking at P/E from a conventional perspective

I think many would agree that bitcoin and associated investment vehicles are clearly showing all the hallmarks of a bubble, and that based on the 5 stages of a bubble as characterised by Hyman Minsky we are in the Euphoria stage , to be followed (eventually and who knows when) by profit taking and then panic stages. From what I have observed on some of my past investment follies the slow gradual decline is a feature, but comes after the panic when the last believers continue to hold, confident that it will bounce back to its highs, and they will recoup their losses, but that crowd ultimately dwindles away with price slowly dropping in the absence of new buyers who will by now have moved on to the next big thing. I have never held crypto assets but have had my fair share of losses in other things over the years. Totally agree with the lack of intrinsic value explanation also, very well put.

Saw consultant this week, his opinion was the fact my left knee has continued to be somewhat painful since my 1998 menisectomy, combined with similar pain occurring now in right knee following an attempted restart of my tennis playing a couple of months ago, is likely to be caused by osteoarthritis. Did MRI of both knees to confirm but can’t get follow appointment with him until 21st November to discuss results and treatment options, which he mentioned could involve one or more of physio, injections (either hyaluronic acid, steroids or arthrosan) or surgery. After some googling, arthrosan looks pretty tasty as a fix that could sort it for 3-5 years following injection, had not heard of that before, is it something that others have experience of (good or bad)? Would need to cross fingers that my employers private insurance policy would cover it. Anyway was pretty depressing to go from thinking I had a sports injury to thinking I have arthritis. Maybe a psychosomatic effect but both knees noticeably more painful since he told me that…

I’ve just been trying to get private consultant appointments for orthopaedics re: knee pain and the consultant I settled on while calling around last week had earliest availability on 31st Oct, so your best bet might be to not be too choosy and go with whoever has a cancellation or other availability before 25th….depending on who your insurer is it might be best to get them to do the legwork for you and use their system to look through all the ones local to you and advise on which one has suitable availability at whatever your nearest clinic is, I had BUPA do this for me looking through diaries of all consultants at Syon Clinic in Brentford and they had a few cancellations available within a week or so that I could have booked. I was told to expect that they’ll try and get knee MRI done same day as initial consult if the clinic has those facilities, so might be worth confirming if/how/when your insurance might fund that also

As you state you have not pestered them, my best advice would be to start pestering them. At least to get some clarity around the situation and what your expectations should be, then hold them to whatever commitments they are able to make around due dates with continued pestering running up to those dates. Trying to back out of these things is probably difficult due to the more complex nature of the arrangements and the parties involved, but not something I have ever tried to do. I had a similar situation with multi-month delays on a C2W during covid supply chain disruption period, and just waited it out (as I didn’t really need the bike as such) although I was obviously not happy to be having deductions from pay each month with nothing to show for it

Yep I’m up for it, I have the link for referral here and can share if you PM me your email

My employer offers C2W thru Halfords scheme, have used it several times always with independents and never had any bother, has a 4% discount on the voucher with max voucher value of 3.5K. The only interaction I had with Halfords was that they emailed me the voucher, and then after I had placed the order with the independent retailer they followed up with me to confirm I had received the goods from the retailer. Always been hassle free. The retailer I have used (Ribble the last couple of times) had no concerns about accepting Halfords voucher, it is just an option to select during checkout. Managed to combine it with a 20% discount code at Ribble earlier this year and used the savings to also put a garmin 1040 solar in the basket to replace my 10 year old garmin (which was nice)

I had initially registered in Aug/Sep, planning to do some proper training this time and improve my time…was wishful thinking as I then had a medical event in October that kept me off the bike all winter (through reluctance rather than inability) , and ended up with commitments to be away in Scotland that weekend. 3 weeks ago my Scotland weekend fell through and I was suddenly available for the ride again (and feeing confident to get back in bike by now) but with only short time to try and get fit. Did some laps of RP on a few occasions mostly to get my arse ready but was clearly not match fit for 100 miles.

Did it anyway, and despite severe cramp in one thigh at 50 mile rest stop which meant I could not walk back to my bike for about 30 minutes, I managed to complete. Second half much slower average speed than first half due to leg cramp still twinging.

Event atmosphere good, diverse population of riders (which is fine if you don’t mind dodging occasional recumbents, tandems, etc), not too many people riding like pricks.

Weather turned out pretty good. Got sunburnt. Seemed to be masses of punctures but luckily avoided that myself.

Last year, my total time was 6 hours, with 5:30 riding time and 1 stop,

This year, my total time was 8 hours, with 6:25 riding time and 3 stops but I was happy to have finished it.

I’ll probably register and do it again next year just to give me something to aim for in terms of demonstrating to myself that I can still do it (as I lack creativity, opportunity and motivation to get off my arse and do 100 miles without someone organising it all for me) and hopefully have better opportunity to train more completely over the winter and get a slightly better time.