Ukraine, Putin and Russia

Are Russia about to invade/annex eastern Ukraine? & what happens if they do? i can’t remember exactly, but nothing much seemed to happen when they took Crimea In 2014.

Do you have a link to some recent events?

Russia seem to be testing the resolve of the international community. Obviously the international community do not want to escalate things and it seems like Russia are going to see how far they can go.

what happens if they do?

Probably nothing imo.

China are grabbing Hong Kong and Russia probably want to grab what they can.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/eu-sounds-alarm-at-russian-troops-ukraine-border-moves

Are you tempting Russian hackers to take down LFGSS?

That’s assuming they’re not already in control. Has Velocio been posting less than normal?

.

Anyone?

It's a big topic and I'm by no means an expert, just read a few things lately.

Putin views Ukraine as "spiritually" part of Russia. He wrote a 5,000 word essay on the subject which you can find on the Russian president website.

Putin objects to NATO expansion and thinks that there is a plot going on to minimise Russian influence. Hence he likes to install dictators in neighbouring countries. See Lukashenko / Belrus

The US would like to lead the diplomatic mission to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine. Some in Europe are now thinking they should have their own voice (Macron).

If Putin instigates a blatant invasion, the US and Europe will impose significant economic sanctions on Russia. However Russia have already demonstrated that it cuts both ways (see gas prices).

Some people think that Putin is just "flexing" and won't actually do an invasion, but we don't know.

Do Russians in general see the Ukraine as part of Russia?

Does Putin have legitimate concerns about the expansion of NATO?

Have a listen to this;
https://www.doomsdaywatch.co.uk/

Doomsday Watch with Arthur Snell: What Putin Wants https://traffic.megaphone.fm/PMO1944155127.mp3?updated=1637063527

NATO expansion graphic. So you can see why they’re pissed. But no justification at all to bring war and misery to millions by invading and colonising Ukraine.

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Heard on Today this morning that Putin doesn’t want democracy in Ukraine. The Ukraine people have seen how they were once more affluent than neighbours Poland but since Poland’s political changes they are now less well off and have been demonstrating to have some of what Poland has. Putin doesn’t want the same ‘the grass is greener in a democracy’ to take hold on Russia so can’t afford for Ukraine to go that way.
The speaker suggested the NATO thing is just a smokescreen as he can’t actually give the real reason to the Russian people.

why they’re pissed

Yes, they really wanted to hold on to Lithuania

It's a lot of different things, rather than one easy answer I suspect.

Alan_tbt gets what I think is the core of it.

The NATO thing - well, look at the recent moves from Finland and Sweden with regards to NATO. It's a response to Russian aggressions, if Russia was not seen as a destabilising, menacing neighbour then neither of these countries would be considering joining.

What happens if rather than sending troops over the border Russia hammers Ukraine with artillery strikes, then once the country collapses sends the troops in "to help restore order"?

This article is interesting..

https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/

Seems mental in 2022 to be watching a news segment on how Sweden is reinforcing Gotland to repel a potential Russian invasion

https://youtu.be/m6U9T3R3EQg

From a wide-ranging report by the Centre for American Progress - a think tank close to the Biden administration - on what to do if Putin invades Ukraine. This passage says U.K. govt so compromised by Russian money, the US may have to intervene.

https://twitter.com/patrickwintour/status/1486245779182399488