Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

How worried are you? Nothing to fear or the beginning of a global pandemic?

Sources:

Health journals / organisations

• https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
  -https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  
• https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
  
• https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
  
• https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/lshtm
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/who
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/cdcgov
  
  

Journalists:

• https://mobile.twitter.com/stephenmcdone­ll
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/chubailiang
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/hancocktom
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/rover829
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/sophia_yan
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/muyixiao
  
  

Others:

• https://mobile.twitter.com/neil_ferguson/with_replies
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/jonread15
  
• https://mobile.twitter.com/T_Inglesby
  
  

@PHE_uk
@WHO
@DrTedros
@kakape
@HelenBranswell
@MackayIM
@JeremyFarrar
@mlipsitch
@BillHanage
@Laurie_Garrett
@ChristoPhraser

Lower mortality rate than SARS but more contagious seems to be the early take. Massive reaction from China - are they just wary after SARS or is there something they aren't telling the rest of the world?

They've got huge concentration camps, I imagine that if it gets into those the results might be genocidal.

The Guardian says 'no'.

The Beeb says unsure until further information about the virus is discovered.

There is a map showing almost real-time reports of how it spreads. Those are official reports and I'm guessing that actual numbers are far worse.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I've been expecting a large scale pandemic for a few years now.
When H1N1 was tipped to be pretty bad (09? I think) I was working at an NHS hospital, we had some pretty serious contingency planning including backup storage incase the morgue was over capacity, off site working for all that didn't need to be on site, volunteer lists for alternative roles that you are be able to do.

Was pretty full on and worrying, thankfully it was less severe than feared.
But it's always worried me that a major pandemic is probable.

Nothing to worry about

I was involved in the pandemic planning for Swine flu for an NHS region.

Doesn't take much of an increase to natural death rates to have to buy the coroner a new JCB.

Swine flu wasn't so much tipped to be pretty bad, as transmittable enough to be taken super seriously. You don't know the potential mortality rate or if it'll mutate until the pandemic is actually happening really.

Too little/unreliable information and a shit tonne of fear mongering online.

Reckon it’s the work of a government. Either China’s or the USA’s.

Just ignore the news and follow the WHO/ LSHTM/CDC.

The articles on the Lancet are interesting - obviously most of it goes over my head though

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

This will be a good account to follow:

https://mobile.twitter.com/stephenmcdonell

This guy is at the more terrifying end of the spectrum:

https://mobile.twitter.com/drericding

That checkpoint video is the stuff of nightmares...

I definitely wouldn't be driving into the quarantined area

My other half wants to go to the Australia Day protest in Brisbane today, I'm gonna veto it... The infection stats being talked about are absolutely terrifying...

Happy Chinese New Year everyone.

Stats are indeed terrifying:
The predicted infection rate is 2.6 (each infected person infects 2.6 people)
If you go way below this and say only 10% of the 7.7 billion people in the world are exposed and say only 1% of those exposed die that would still be 7.7 MILLION deaths.

Bird flu was untweetable but that didn’t wipe out the planet...
Population of China = 1.4billion +/-
Total deaths to date = 40ish
= 1 death per 35 million people.

Don’t worry 😉 and drink some of this:

1 Attachment

What's the mortality rate so far? Above 5%, right?

My partner's laughing at me for being so concerned... Hmmm...

What's the mortality rate so far? Above 5%, right?

According to the numbers on the John Hopkins map, 2.92%. Likely to be far far lower though (as I understand it) as there'll be lots of cases where syptoms have not been bad enough to require medical intervention so are not recorded.

Has coincided nicely with Netflix's pandemic docu series release

The social media and news hysteria is likely to be worse than the virus itself.

China seems to be dealing with it as only the Chinese government can, which is good news in this case.

Flight restrictions, a severe downturn in the economy, massive population reduction.
You never know this thing might be a blessing in disguise for the human race.

massive population reduction...might be a blessing in disguise for the human race.

Uggghhhhhhhh