Financial Advice / The Euro

Is there anyone here that knows anything about finance. Specifically the current situation of the Eurozone. I have a friend who has a lot of money held in Belgium in Euros and they are very nervous and unsure of what to do with it. Do they relax and keep it in Euros and wait for the day it gets stronger again against the £ or do they cut their losses and run now before all hell breaks loose? What is the worst case scenario and how likely is that scenario and how soon is it all going to go pear?

serious comments appreciated

thanks

I'm not in finance but according to the stuff I've read the Euro is about as strong as it can get at the moment. Sure there's bound to be some kind of fluctuation when Silvio goes cap in hand to the people in charge as well as that Zapatero character and things are far from stable in Greece and Portugal, but at least it's not held in dollars.

The types of problems I wish I had. These are them.

^ serious comment.

Tim

Ultimately it depends not where the money is now but which currency they need the money to be long term in the future.
If your long term commitments (mortgage, pension requirements etc...) are in a specific currency then why run exchange rate risks over and above investment risks or interest rate risks. So if your friend is buying a house here and plans to retire here and his only need for Euros is the odd weekend in Amsterdam with his Brummie mate then he should really think about having some or all of his savings in sterling. This way currency movements will not impact his savings against needs ratio. If he intends moving to Euroland at some point then it makes sense to stay in the Euro for the same reasons.

As for timing the switch, the current rate is good based on historical levels. Not switching when there is a long term need to switch introduces the extra exchange rate risk and it is down to your friend how much risk they are willing to accept in return for the possibility of a gain in the exchange rate (which could also go against them). The simple fact that they are asking the question implies that they are worried about this risk and should be thinking of converting at least a portion of their savings over. (Assuming long term need will be in sterling).

References to him are because I cannot imagine you having a girl friend.

Get into hard money [bullion] and out of paper. imho

Buy high, sell low.

No, the other way around, soz.

Chris - they are really concerned about the euro crashing and being left with paper not fit to wipe your ass on. You hear about the Italians and the Spanish getting sucked in and basically when could you ever trust those corrupt fuck wits to pull a decent economy together? of course it is a girl! in my experience guys can't save up for shit.

this remains a serous thread even though i resort to casual xenophobia and stereotypes i would love to be proved wrong.

If they want it in pounds long term, isnt it quite a good time to exchange them now? In 2005 100 euros would have bought you c. 70 whereas today it will get you nearer £90 (accoriding to wolfram alpha)... Or am I talking rubbish? I know next to nothing about this kind of thing.

That's true if you're talking about exchanging, now is a good time as the pound is getting pretty darn close to parity with the euro.

However, the answer to the OP depends on a few things - primarily how the euros are held. If it's in an account of some kind the Belgium Government should have some kind of guarantee scheme. If they don't, get it out now as the rate is currently good and any account in the UK is covered up to £50k. I would imagine they do though.

Timber. Timber is where money is at right now. And wine. And weapons.

Wood, booze and bombs.

Get into hard money [bullion] and out of paper. imho

about a year too late.

Any idea on credit card Exchange rates?
Looking at buying a bike in €uro, trying to calculate what it'll cost.
XE has 1.154 Beeb has 1.151, but these are market rates not tourist rates.
I have no idea what mastercard will rape me with.
I'm hanging on in the hopes if a new high with the euro (1.22 would be nice)

Paypal could be cheaper depending on the MC that you use. My bank charges my around £7 per transaction in any currency that is not Sterling.

The positive thing about Eurozone is you can see potential problems a mile ahead before they actually arrive. It's a huge, convoluted domino economy. Also I'd personally have greater confidence in the EU economy over GB in a crisis situation. Is hell expected to break loose? Well quantify such a statement.
If all you're inquiring about is the currency exchange rate, well that's an up/down game always. Unless you're trading ForeX it's of little good, as your guess as to when to move dough around is as good as someone's on LFGSS.

put it all in to dollars now that it's low. Or Chinese Yuan.

What's the most efficient way of converting dollars in cash to pounds?

house of hanover on hanover street

my work colleagues used to go there and buy / sell foreign currency

best rates around they said and they spent all day watching fx screens and markets

don't know if it's still the case but worth a look

https://www.thomasexchange.co.uk/

even better

Ace-fx are up there rates wise.