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That makes it sound like it's a 50/50 chance of it succeeding. Which I don't think is the case (#notaneconomist). However, here are to reasons why I wouldn't put much hope in bitcoins:
1) It's being treated as an asset from which money can be made, not as something which has a value in itself (people are not using them to buy goods, for the most part). This reminds me of something... (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/Shiller_IE2_Fig_2-1.png/726px-Shiller_IE2_Fig_2-1.png)
2) If houses can get caught in a bubble - real physical assets - I wouldn't hold out too much hope for the digital wallet.