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@s785
In fairness, there are certain things we don't have evidence for that it would be too dangerous/backwards not to use until we have appropriate evidence. In medicine for example - I don't think we properly understand how general anaesthesia works, and paracetamol remains a bit of a mystery, along with many other commonly used drugs, but the "common sense" fact is they do.
There might be similar cases for cycling - and it would be unethical to run any experiment where the endpoint was "# of DSI", because the second you got a statistically significant variation you'd have to end on grounds of danger to the control group. So yeah I'm not sure you could scientifically "prove" whether high-vis in well lit areas reduces serious collisions.
(NB I actually agree with you and personally think it might have a net negative effect by reducing the onus on other road users to "see" not "look", increase antagonism to those of us who don't want to look a twat, etc etc)