Football

So I'm in this game where each week you have to pick a winning team in the Prem, If your pick wins you go through to the next round, lose or draw you are out. In the next round you have to pick a winner again but you cannot pick any team you have picked in any previous round. 80 odd started and I'm down to the last 3. We have all picked the same teams so far so no one has an advantage.

The reason I tell you this is because the prize is £650.

blah blah blah

I have picked Hull, the other 2 have picked NUFC.

Betfair exchange has the decimal odd for a win as...

Hull - 1.86
Newcastle - 1.81

Convert to probability is 0.54 vs 0.55 (rounded) so...

Hull win/NUFC lose is 0.24
Hull lose/NUFC win is 0.25

a win/win or lose/lose is a roll over. I calculate one or the other to happen to be 0.5.

Could lay this off but, fuck it, I want it all! slight underdog though.