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@rhowe
Came out about the same - 31 now, say another 30 years cycling 5 days a week 45 weeks a year for 2x50mins per day
30×5×45×(100÷60)÷1000000×0.42=0.004725
If you're working out the chances of dying on a bike you'd also need to factor in that x% of your life is also spent on a bike so if you assume that you may have an aneurism, heart attack etc at random then it's a shade more likely than the above calculation.
To check my figures, I looked at strava. Currently we're on week 46 of the year, so 52×(46÷52)×(100÷60)×5=383 hours I reckon I must've done. Strava has counted 341 so far this year, so it's not too far off. 8 weeks weren't logged, so factoring that in gives 341×(52÷44) = 403 hours
380-400 seems reasonable, given that the summer brought with it all those wonderful extra hours with TNRC