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@Chalfie
Hmm. On first thoughts I'd say regression to the mean.
Have United been overperforming? Or is Moyes having a negative effect?
If United have been overperforming then yeah, they're looking likely to finish outside of the top 4.
If it's the latter, then perhaps rectifying the changes he's made would bring them back up.
I don't think you can base on the first 10, otherwise Spurs would continually qualify for the Big Cup.