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@Bobbo
My understanding of this is:
Rudd - liked by the electorate, hated within the party.
Gillard - liked by the party, hated by the electorate.
The ALPs approval rating shows that they will not win another election and they are now currently leaderless as Gillard has no mandate from the party and Rudd is not PM yet. In order for Rudd to become PM he will need to be recommended by Gillard to the Governor General who will approve the decision he will then face a vote in parliament which is reliant on independents voting to approve him. If that vote fails there will be another election. If Gillard refuses to recommend him who knows what the fuck will happen.
Gillard has pledged to retire from parliament but even if she does not she is likely finished.