You'll get the hang of pacing efforts as you do more. It's just the way it is. We don't 'know' what our max is over a period of time until we've done it and most likely done it a few times.
"averaged 310 watts in the warm up 5 minute effort"
That doesn't sound like a warmup unless you're doing a prologue.
Find a warmup protocol and stick to it (again, you'll nail it the more you do it)
As it turns out, 133% of my FTP. Although I was expecting a higher score. Something that would have put it at 110% (280 watts).
Feck. Thats that excuse out.